Who’s who in the Turkish election

Two other candidates are seeking the presidency. Sinan Ogan is an academic and a right-wing nationalist who has promised to deport Syrian refugees and strengthen Türkiye’s relations with other Turkic states. Although a former member of the Erdogan-allied Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), Ogan is running as an independent.
Muharrem Ince withdrew from the race on Thursday following the online release of a purported sex tape, which he claimed was fake. Ince leads the Homeland Party, a faction that split from Kilicdaroglu’s CHP in 2021. His withdrawal is widely seen as benefiting Kilicdaroglu, who will likely claim most of Ince’s voters.
Erdogan, Kilicdaroglu, and Ogan are backed by alliances of multiple parties, all of whom are also competing for seats in parliament.
Erdogan’s AKP is the largest party in the People’s Alliance, a group that also includes the right-wing Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) and the Islamist Great Unity Party (BBP) and New Welfare Party (YRP).
Kilicdaroglu’s CHP is the largest member of the Nation Alliance, a six-party group of mainly center-left and center-right parties, all of whom are broadly pro-European and secularist.
Ogan is backed by the Ancestral Alliance, a grouping of four predominantly nationalist parties.
Voting will take place on Sunday, although Turks living abroad have been able to cast their ballots since April 27. Should no presidential candidate receive a 50% share of the vote, a runoff election will be held between the top two candidates on May 28. Results are generally known by the early hours of the following morning.
Parliamentary seats are assigned based on proportional representation, with voters choosing from party lists rather than voting for candidates directly. Parties must obtain a share of at least 7% of the vote by itself or as part of an alliance to enter parliament.
Should Erdogan emerge victorious, Türkiye will likely stay on its current path of relative geopolitical independence. Although Türkiye is a member of the NATO alliance, Erdogan has deepened trade and diplomatic relations with Russia, while refusing to sanction Moscow for its military operation in Ukraine. Under Erdogan, Türkiye’s EU membership talks have stalled since 2016, with the president ignoring Brussels’ warnings that his 2017 constitutional reforms would imperil the country’s bid to join the bloc.
If Kilicdaroglu wins, he has promised to immediately restart EU membership talks and align Türkiye’s domestic policies with those of the bloc. This would entail complying with the directives of the European Court of Human Rights and releasing prisoners the Erdogan government considers terrorists.
Kilicdaroglu has vowed to repair his country’s strained ties with its NATO allies, and to comply with the US’ sanctions on Russia. Although he has said that he would maintain economic ties with Russia and would be open to hosting peace talks between Moscow and Kiev, he recently said that he would “also remind Russia that Türkiye is a member of NATO.”
Beset by stubbornly high inflation and the humanitarian and economic catastrophe caused by a pair of devastating earthquakes in February, Erdogan is heading into what may be his toughest election to date.
Most polls taken this month show Kilicdaroglu leading Erdogan by between one and five points. An amalgamation of Turkish polls currently predicts Kilicdaroglu taking 49.8% of the vote and Erdogan 46.7%, with Ogan coming in a distant third at 3.5%.