Politics of the Ukraine – Past and future possibilities

  1. Introduction

It would be quite unusual for any thinking person to remain calm and quiet under the current geopolitical environment across the Eurasian landmass. Hence, I couldn’t resist myself from delving into the origin, causes, and future possibilities of the so-called ‘Ukraine problem’.

The very first thing that comes to my mind is how the phrase ‘Ukraine problem’ came into limelight. Does the origin of this phrase has something to do with things purely Ukrainian or for that matter, even Russian? Not really! The ‘problem’ identified with ‘Ukraine’ has its origin in the global geopolitics – more specifically, it has everything to do with the concept of ‘geopolitics’ defined by the academicians, strategists, economists who did the bidding of Zionist-Capitalist globalists during past one and half centuries. It was the experts like Mackinder (Heartland Theory“Who rules East Europe commands the Heartland, Who rules Heartland commands the World-Island, Who rules the World-Island commands the World”), Spykman (Rimland Theory“Who controls the Rimland rules Eurasia, Who rules Eurasia controls the destinies of the world”), Brzezinski (Grand Chess Board Theory“Eurasia is the globe’s largest continent and geopolitically axial. A power that dominates Eurasia would control two of the world’s most advances and economically productive regions. The control over Eurasia would almost automatically entails Africa’s subordination,

rendering the Western Hemisphere and Oceania geopolitically peripheral to the world’s central continent. Since Eurasia is too big to be politically one. It is the chessboard on which the struggle for global primacy continues to be played”), who for reasons unknown to any peaceful social person, wanted ‘Eurasia’ to be the indispensable piece of landmass that must be controlled by the Zionist-Capitalist globalist clique permanently. (There are a great many regions across six continents and five oceans where there are humongous deposits of fossil fuels, minerals, forests, and water resources – Eurasian heartland is just one of the many).

  1. The Geopolitical Plot in Eurasia: The Role of Zionist-Capitalist Globalists

I would quote from a piece written by me earlier in this blog-site [link 🡪 http://thesaker.is/bridging-chinas-past-with-humanitys-future-part-2/] lest the key geopolitical issue about the ‘Ukraine problem’ is forgotten by the readers:

“ With the setting up of Bank for International Settlements (BIS) in Switzerland in 1930, the disputes and tussle among the most prominent Jewish and Anglo banker families (like Rothschild, Rockefeller, Morgan, Warburg, Lazard, et al.) over type of business, geographical region of influence, and share of banking sector operations got resolved. The Zionist-Capitalist elites were fully united in words and deeds notwithstanding the occasional rivalry and difference of opinion between followers of two camps: Rothschild and Rockefeller. The long-term objective of the Zionist-Capitalist Deep State clique (representing primarily the Jewish, Anglo, Dutch, French, German oligarch and aristocrat families who had accumulated wealth and have been engaged in business in banking-land-industry-trading) after WW-I has been to establish a hegemonic world order which would:

  1. own ‘political process and power’ in every society/country on the earth
  2. own ‘economic process and wealth’ in every landmass/country/ocean on the earth
  3. control ‘socio-cultural process and population’ in every region/country on the earth

I find it difficult to consider that, ‘winning’ political power anywhere in the world, has ever been an objective of the Deep State – they want to ‘own’ the process through which any political party may be made to ‘win’ or ‘loose’ power depending on short-term and long-term interest of the Deep State.

The Zionist-Capitalist Deep State crystallized in its existing form when WW-II started in 1936 (with signing of anti-communist pact between Germany, Italy, and Japan). Expectations of the Zionist-Capitalist Deep State were destruction of powerful societies (non- Anglo/Jewish/Dutch/French) who had potential to develop advanced economy, and expansion of the Zionist-Capitalist Empire:

  1. combatants Fascist Germany and Communist Soviet Union decimating each other’s (i) military forces, (ii) physical infrastructure, and (iii) population across entire Eurasia;
  2. combatants Fascist Japan and Nationalist China decimating each other’s (i) military forces, (ii) physical infrastructure, and (iii) population across entire East Asia;
  3. stages (a) and (b) would be followed by occupation of whole Europe and Asia by the ‘benevolent’ Anglo-American military who would claim that they have ‘liberated’ these ancient civilizations from the ‘authoritarian dictatorships’ of fascism and communism;
  4. stage (c) would be followed by establishment of ‘liberal democratic capitalism’ version of the empire as against (the older) ‘colonial extractive capitalism’ version in whole Europe and Asia to continue plunder of wealth in maximum possible way “

Unfortunately half of the objectives remained unfulfilled in the WW-II that was over by 1945 – because of two political parties: Communist Party of Soviet Union (CPSU) and Communist Party of China (CPC) whose top leadership mobilised their countrymen in collective patriotic spirit, Soviet Union and China didn’t capitulate but their direct adversaries (Germany and Japan) were trounced. Phase II became a necessity for the Deep State.

Phase II of WW-II was initiated as soon as phase I was over. ‘Operation Unthinkable’ was planned by most ardent imperialist Churchill in order to launch a surprise attack on Soviet Union to achieve the original objectives that Hitler failed to achieve, but dropped. Realising that a military block consisting of all societies that join together as Zionist-Capitalist Deep State, would be more effective to demolish:

(a) morally and militarily supreme power like Soviet Union which recuperated economically,

(b) new power like Communist China (where by January’1949, Peoples Liberation Army already won three major campaigns in last strongholds of Kuo Mintang party in east and south regions of China),

NATO was formed in April’1949.

To achieve the long-term objective of hegemonic world order as well as the four WW-II objectives, the Deep State displayed creativity in designing and deploying diplomatic, political, economic, cultural tools and methods that proved to be highly durable and extremely effective:

  1. UNO and its key sister organizations were established to control the international political incidents in all regions across the globe
  2. Through WBG, IMF, ADB global banking and financial companies spread its tentacles to every region of the world to control natural resources and economy
  3. US Dollar as the foreign currency exchange basis across the globe – not only the gold backing was withdrawn from Dollar in 1971 by USA government, but the hegemon also manipulated the Arab rulers to use Dollar as currency for most crucial commodity trading (of petroleum)
  4. Trade pacts like GATT, WTO, and similar other pacts driven by USA-West Europe-Japan were implemented so that the hegemonic power maintains their hold over global trade
  5. Promotion of ‘periodic election’ plus ‘market economy’ plus ‘private ownership’ masquerading as ‘Democracy’ across the globe
  6. Promotion of literature-cinema-fine arts that revolves around sex-drug-commercial duplicity in all major languages across the globe
  7. Promotion of mainstream media for broadcasting and publishing round-the-clock propaganda on the above mentioned tools (i) to (vi) in all major languages across the globe
  8. Promotion of academic institutions and intellectual for propagating curriculum on the above mentioned tools (i) to (vi) in all major languages across the globe
  9. Promotion of religious fundamentalist groups (male chauvinists with belief in illusory past glory from society which profess religious faiths like Sunni Islam, in Catholic Christianity, in Puritan Christianity, Brahmanical Hinduism etc.) as well as ethnic fundamentalist groups (believing superiority of his/her ethnicity) in all regions across the globe
  10. Development of highly complex computerised system and other industrial technology to replace human labour in every sphere of productive work as much as possible

The Deep State operatives were very successful in their original plan of wrecking Soviet Union from within. In the beginning of 1980s two leaders got into powerful political positions in the Soviet block – Yuri Andropov became top leader of CPSU and Lech Walesa became top trade union leader in Poland, Such high-ranking anti-socialist leaders quickly made inroads into state structure and policies in Soviet Union and Poland. After Andropov handpicked Gorbachev to lead CPSU, it was only a matter of time for the Deep State to wrap-up the socialist experiment what was known as USSR. Gorbachev and his so-called reformist clique systematically incapacitated Soviet economy, and also actively promoted downfall of governments in every east European country which were led by socialist party aligned with CPSU. This clique was helped by professionals from USA and west Europe. They also pinned hope that CPC leader Zhao Ziyang will become the ‘Gorbachev of China’ to bring down the government ruled by CPC – however this was a complete failure as Zhao himself confided with Gorbachev that ‘Deng was the top leader’ in a meeting when Tiananmen Square protest was raging in Beijing in 1989. Without a single gun-shot being fired by the military wings of Zionist-Capitalist cabal, the Soviet Union dissolved itself between 1990 to 1991 CE –
the phase II of WW-II came to an end. Instead of serious introspection and course correction among ruling party officials and government departments to design policies keeping pace with socio-economic changes and technological changes, all these (Soviet) ‘reformist’ leaders decided that the best way to (personal?) growth was to join hands with Zionist-Capitalist world order after bringing down the governments ruled by their own party communist/socialist party.

By 2020 whole Europe and half of Asia had been occupied by the ‘benevolent’ Anglo-American NATO military who claimed that they guarantee ‘independence’ of those ‘liberated countries’ from the clutch of ‘authoritarian’ communism and they also ensure that ‘liberal democratic capitalism’ version of empire will suck the land and citizens dry. No wonder, Soviet WW-II war memorials and monuments have been systematically destroyed in east Europe – how long the Deep State would tolerate anti-Zionist anti-capitalist flag hoisted by Soviet Red Army in Europe with immense sacrifices and sufferings by Soviet leaders, soldiers and people?

Concomitant with the complete control of all political parties (across the wide spectrum of their professed ideology) on both sides of the Atlantic: North America, South America, Europe, the discerning Zionist-Capitalist cabal maintains a complex cobweb connecting all key members and rotating them from one role to another. Thus a retired Director of intelligence department of USA will occupy the chair of Chairman of a big financial investment firm as well as the role of a university Professor! The cabal maintains a carefully constructed façade where professionals from different spheres of society jointly appear as a highly educated, experienced and intelligent wing – industrialists, bankers, politicians, bureaucrats, military officials, business managers, legal and media professionals, academicians, NGO managers, cinema directors and artists all walks of life are present…”

In spite of the planning and execution of the imperialist capitalist designs on Eurasia as mentioned above, the Zionist-Capitalist clique found, to their utter dismay, that by 2020 a resurgent nationalist Russia and a nationalist communist China are successfully spearheading a sort of global movement for multipolar geopolitical and geo-economic world order. Not only the gains at the end of WW I, WW II, and Cold War have been seriously undermined by the ‘evil-duo’ of Russia and China, but the basic primacy of the Zionist-Capitalist Deep State in global affairs are being seriously contested by these countries (and Iran). The final objectives of the Zionist-Capitalist Deep State is to wreck the current Russian and Chinese society and economy, create disorder that will eventually break the states of Russia and China into 3 – 5 smaller states, leaders of which will source their legitimacy and strength from the global oligarchy (the high priests of Zionist-Capitalist Deep State).

  1. Brief Political History of the East Slavs

For any serious discussion on geopolitics and geo-economics of a country/region, historical development of political entity and society must be seriously and objectively carried out. Instead of writing long paragraphs, I thought it prudent to be economical and put information in tabular format. According to the traditional account presented in The Russian Primary Chronicle (originally authored by Nestor, a monk in Kievan Rus of the Monastery of the Caves in Kiev who lived between 1056 and 1113 CE), the kingdom of Kievan Rus was founded by Rurik, the Varangian /Viking ruler of Novgorod who reigned between 862 CE and 879 CE. The next chief Oleg who ruled between 879 CE and 912 CE expanded the territory by expelling the Khazars from Kiev, and established the new capital at Kiev – the location was chosen with an eye to controlling the trading with the Byzantine Empire through Dnieper. And, it was instrumental for the prosperity of Kievan Rus (that controlled the trade route from the Baltic Sea to the Black Sea through which furs, wax, honey, slaves were moved). The kingdom was expanded eastward and westward by Igor who ruled between 912 CE and 945 CE, and by Olga (who ruled as regent between 945 CE and 964 CE) southward. Vladimir I ruled between 978 CE and 1015 CE – his reign was noteworthy because he got converted into Orthodox Christianity in 988 CE thereby selecting Orthodox Christianity as the state religion for east Slavic society. Yaroslav the Wise (reigned 1019 CE to 1054 CE) promulgated the first East Slavic law code (Rus’ka pravda). Both Vladimir I and Yaroslav challenged the Khazarian Empire for the entire space over which the Khazarian kingdom was built.

Encyclopaedia Britannica noted “The East Slavs had no significant tradition of supra-tribal political organization before the coming of the Varangians, who themselves, until well into the 10th century, had little interest in institutions more elaborate than those necessary for the exploitation of their rich, new territory. The territory of Rus, moreover, was immense and sparsely settled. The scattered towns, some probably little more than trading posts, were separated by large primeval forests and swamps.” Even though any staunch nationalist from the current Rus society would like to scoff at this quotation, reality of Rus society before Mongol invasion was nearer to this statement rather than further. After the death of Yaroslav the Wise in 1054 CE, there was a major break-up within the Rurik dynasty as a result of which the kingdom of Kievan Rus got split into multiple principalities each of which was ruled by a member of the Rurik family. The princes frequently fought among themselves, forming alliances with outside groups such as the Poles, and Hungarians. With Kievan Rus kingdom in decline, Novgorod principality became strong. A local oligarchy ruled Novgorod; a town assembly elected a prince as the city-state’s military leader. It benefited tremendously from the trading relations with other trading towns of the Hanseatic League. In the 12th century Novgorod had its dedicated archbishop as a sign of political independence. Also, by the 12th century, the combined principality of Vladimir-Suzdal became a major power – in 1169 CE the army under Prince Andrey Bogolyubskiy sacked the city of Kiev. Political power shifted to the northeast, away from Kiev region. In 1299 CE the metropolitan of the Orthodox Church moved to the city of Vladimir thereby raising the status of Vladimir-Suzdal’ as the religious centre of east Slavic society. To the southwest (of Kiev), the principality of Galicia-Volhynia developed mature trade relations with Polish, and Hungarian neighbours and emerged as another successor to Kievan Rus’. In 1199 CE Prince Roman of Volhynia, invited by the Galician noblemen ascended the throne in Halicz and united Volhynia and Galicia in 1200 CE. .

Briefly the political and territorial trajectory of Eurasian landmass (with more stress on the western edge of Eurasia) has been mentioned below:

Region Description
8th century BCE to 2nd century CE
Carpathian Mountains in the west to Ordos Plateau in the east The first Central Asian nomadic empire was built by the Scythians.

Between 2nd and 4th century CE the Scythians were overwhelmed and dominated by the Sarmatians, Alans, Huns, and Goths.

4th century CE to 9th century CE
Between upper Volga and upper Don (currently west Russia) Settlements of five Volga-Finnic groups of the Merya, Mari, Muromians, Meshchera and Mordvinians.
Around lower Volga and lower Don (currently west Russia), Caucasus, and lower Dnieper (currently Ukraine) Settlements of Bulghars, Khazars, and Kipchaks; a team of Bulghars migrated towards coast of Black Sea, another team migrated to upper Volga; Khazars became a strong kingdom between Dnieper and Ural rivers, and it extracted tributes from non-Khazars living within their jurisdiction.
Coast of Baltic Sea, currently west Belarus, Gulf of Finland, lake Ladoga, White Sea Settlements of two East Balt (Indo-European) groups: Latvians, Lithuanians and four Finnic groups: Vepsians, Estonians, Karelians, and Chuds.
Space between Dniester – upper Vistula in the west to Ural mountains in the east (currently Ukraine, Belarus, west Russia) Entire region except the space occupied by the 3 above mentioned communities was occupied by the east Slavic tribes. Apparently, remnants of the old Scythian and Sarmatian communities had been assimilated and absorbed by the early east Slavic society.
860 CE to 1240 CE
The watersheds of the Volga, Don, Dnieper, Dniester, Neman, Western Dvina, Vistula By the 7th century CE the east Slavs became the dominant ethno-linguistic group in the Eurasian plain. Between 862 CE and 1054 CE the kingdom of Kievan Rus (east Slav society ruled by Varangian aristocracy) was on ascendency, it reached its zenith as the first ‘state’ of the east Slavs with significant geopolitical weight.
From east to west:

(i) Vladimir-Suzdal,

(ii) Ryazan,

(iii) Novgorod,

(iv) Smolensk,

(v) Chernigov,

(vi) Polotsk,

(vi) Kiev,

(viii) Galicia-Volhynia

Between 1054 CE and 1240 CE, the kingdom of Kievan Rus slipped into a path of chaos, independent strong principalities arose who were engaged in internecine wars among themselves. There is a view among a section of the European academicians who would like to negate the entire Kievan Rus chapter. Jaroslaw Pelenski mentioned in ‘The Contest for the Legacy of Kievan Rus’, “The ‘Riurikide’ dynasty and the ruling elite … attempted to impose on their highly diverse polity the integrative concept of russkaia zemlia (‘the Rus’ land’) and the unifying notion of a ‘Rus’ people’. …But ‘Kievan Rus” was never really a unified polity. It was a loosely bound, ill-defined, and heterogeneous conglomeration of lands and cities inhabited by tribes and population groups whose loyalties were primarily territorial…”
1240 CE to 1547 CE
Golden Horde empire included:

According to notable Russian scholars A.P.Grigorev and O.B.Frolova, Golden Horde had 10 provinces:

(i) Khiva or Khorazm,

(ii) Desht-i-Kipchak,

(iii) Khazaria,

(iv) Crimea,

(v) the Banks of Azov,

(vi) the country of Circassians,

(vii) Bulgar,

(viii) Walachia,

(ix) Alania,

(x) Russian lands (mostly vassal states like (a) Grand Duchy of Lithuania,

(b) Republic of Novgorod,

(c) Republic of Pskov,

(d) Principality of Smolensk, and

(e) Grand Duchy of Muscovy)

Between 1237 CE and 1242 CE, forces of Mongol Empire overran most of the regions which were once part of the kingdom of Kievan Rus’. After sacking the city of Kiev in 1240 CE, the Mongol army moved into Poland and Hungary.

Crimea, Itil, New Sarai (near modern Volgograd) were the towns which became the commercial and administrative centres of the so-called ‘Golden Horde’ (Mongol family of Jochi, son of Genghis Khan). Control of the Slavic society and land was exercised through the local princes (who acted as vassals), and through agents charged with overseeing the fiscal levies.

As the time progressed, different branches of Mongol ‘Golden Horde’ in charge with different regions (Tatar Khanates) of the empire clashed among them. Finally, in 1395 CE, Timur’s central Asian army destroyed the Golden Horde’s power centres at Sarai, Azov, and Kaffa. The Golden Horde never recovered fully, but they continued their tribute collection system till 1480 CE when Grand Prince Ivan III of Muscovy Principality denied payment of tribute (called as ‘Great Stand on the Ugra River’). Thereafter, few comparatively small sized ‘khanates’ arose in few places (across the erstwhile empire) that were run by the Mongol warlords and vied for political space (increasingly cornered by Muscovy Rus).

Grand Duchy of Lithuania

(Kingdom of Poland and Duchy of Lithuania were united by Union of Krewo, a personal union of the rulers in 1385 CE; Union of Lublin in 1569 CE was a pact between Poland and Lithuania that united the two countries into a single commonwealth state)

Lithuanians created one of the strongest political entities of medieval Europe, Grand Duchy of Lithuania that covered their traditional tribal space on Baltic Sea as well as the principality of Polotsk (one of the break-away regions of Kievan Rus that was invaded by Lithuanians in 1307 CE). It also acquired the northern part of the principality of Kiev between 1240 CE and 1319 CE.

Principality of Galicia–Volhynia (1199–1253 CE) was one of the many independent principalities that came into limelight after dissolution of Kievan Rus. Later proclaimed as Kingdom of Ruthenia it became a vassal of the Golden Horde. Polish kingdom annexed the Ruthenian kingdom in 1349 CE. Catholic Polish King Casimir III adopted the title of King of Poland and ruler of Ruthenia.

Thus for all practical purposes, western and central parts of present-day Ukraine and Belarus became part of the Catholic Poland-Lithuania during mid-14th century.

Republic of Novgorod Of the principalities of Kievan Rus’, only Novgorod escaped direct occupation by the Mongols. In fact, Novgorod’s burghers accommodated the invading Mongols – they extended their trading down the Volga and toward the Urals.

Alexander Nevsky served as the Prince of Novgorod (1236–56 and 1258–1259), Grand Prince of Kiev (1236–52) and Grand Prince of Vladimir (1252–63) during some of the most difficult times in Rus’ history. He defeated all adversaries (Swedes, Germans, Estonians) approaching from north-west while maintained good relations with Golden Horde by paying them a tribute – probably, such farsightedness saved the Orthodox culture of the then Rus society.

Novgorod continued to prosper economically, but its ruling oligarchy was dethroned by the Grand Principality of Muscovy in 1478 CE thereby ending its independence.

Grand Duchy of Muscovy While towns like Kiev never fully recovered in Mongol times, many other towns made a striking recovery as it happened for the towns in Vladimir-Suzdal region. New regions, such as Moscow and Tver appeared on the horizon within Vladimir-Suzdal region. Alexander Nevsky, clan member of Rurikid dynasty formed the Grand Duchy of Muscovy when in 1263 CE his son Daniel I was appointed to rule the newly-created Grand Duchy, which they ruled until their male line died out in 1598 CE. It started as a vassal state to the Golden Horde Mongol Empire, and soon eclipsed and eventually absorbed its parent Duchy of Vladimir-Suzdal by the 1320s.

The Grand Duchy of Muscovy gradually incorporated all left out adjacent smaller duchies. Vasili III who reigned between 1505 and 1533 CE, expanded Muscovy’s borders by annexing Republic of Novgorod (1478 CE), Duchy of Tver (1485 CE), Republic of Pskov (1510 CE), the principality of Ryazan (1521 CE), and Novgorod-Seversky (1522 CE).

Moscow’s eventual dominance of northern and eastern Rus’ was in large part attributable to the Mongols. After the prince of Tver joined a rebellion against the Mongols in 1327 CE, Muscovy prince Ivan I joined the Mongols in crushing Tver. By doing so he removed his rival, brought the Russian Orthodox Church headquarters to Moscow, and was granted the title of Grand Prince by the Mongol Empire. Slowly the Muscovy prince became the chief intermediary between the Mongol court and the Rus’ principalities. Golden Horde respected and collaborated with Muscovy Rus. This, in turn, attracted even the Mongol nobles who settled in the secured Muscovy.

‘Many Russian boyar (noble) families traced their descent from the Mongols or Tatars, including Veliaminov-Zernov, Godunov, Arseniev, Bakhmetev, Bulgakov (descendants of Bulgak) and Chaadaev (descendants of Genghis Khan’s son Chagatai Khan). In a survey of Russian noble families of the 17th century, over 15% of the Russian noble families had Tatar or Oriental origins.’

1547 CE to 1771 CE
Tsardom of Russia / Tsardom of Muscovy; Russian Empire

As of 1763 CE, Russian Empire was organised in following divisions:

(i) Archangelgorod Governorate

(ii) Astrakhan Governorate

(iii) Belgorod Governorate

(iv) Kazan Governorate

(v) Kiev Governorate

(vi) Moscow Governorate

(vii) Nizhny Novgorod Governorate

(viii) Novgorod Governorate

(ix) Orenburg Governorate

(x) Revel Governorate

(xi) Riga Governorate

(xii) St. Petersburg Governorate

(xiii) Siberian Governorate

(xiv) Smolensk Governorate

(xv) Voronezh Governorate

(xvi) Vyborg Governorate

In 1547 CE, Ivan IV assumed the title of ‘Tsar and Grand Duke of all Rus’ and was crowned by Constantinople Patriarch Jeremiah II thereby turning the Grand Duchy of Muscovy into Tsardom of Russia. Between 1598 CE (when the last Rurik dynasty ruler died) and 1613 CE (when the Romanovs came to power) there was political instability. Thereafter the expansion process of the Tsardom continued. From 1551 to 1700 CE, Russia grew by 35,000 km2 per year. Through a series of victorious military campaigns Tsarist Russia annexed the Khanate of Kazan (1552 CE), the Khanate of Astrakhan (1556 CE), and the Khanate of Sibir (1598 CE) from the former Mongol warlords. Russia annexed the Khanate of Qasim in 1681 CE.

In the mid-17th century the tensions between Polish-Lithuanian ruling aristocracy and the Cossacks of the Ukrainian lands increased. The dispute turned into a military conflict in 1648 CE known as the Khmelnitsky uprising. The Cossack leader Bogdan Khmelnitsky, after a few years of war against Polish-Lithuanian, was forced to seek protection from the Russian Tsar. The Pereiaslav union in 1654 CE led to the progressive incorporation of the Cossack parts of the state with the Russian Empire. In 1667 CE (Truce of Andrusovo), Russia and Poland partitioned the Russian and Malorossian territory (ruled by Poland-Lithuania) along the River Dnepr whereby Left Bank remained under Russian control (Smolensk, Left Bank Ukraine, temporary gain of Kiev, Zaphorizhia. In 1686 CE the control over Kiev, Zaphorizhia became permanent. Muscovy secured number of territories that belonged to the Grand Duchy of Lithuania such as the Upper Oka Principalities and Sloboda Ukraine. In 1708, the Oka principalities and Sloboda Ukraine were incorporated into the first Kiev Governorate.

Wars against Sweden resulted in victories and territorial gains – in 1721 CE Livonia, Estonia, Ingria, and Karelia were annexed, while in 1743 CE south-west Karelia was annexed by Russia defeating the Swedish kingdom.

1772 CE to 1921 CE
At the start of WW I in 1914 CE, western part of Russian Empire consisted of the following divisions:

Principality of Finland governorates:

Uleaborg, Vaasa, Abo-Byerneborg, Nyland, Tavastehus, Saint Michel, Vyborg, Kuopio

Baltic governorates:

Estonia, Livonia, Courland

Lithuania/Belarus governorates:

Kovno, Vilna, Vitebsk, Mogilev,

Minsk, Grodno

Congress Poland governorates: Kalisz, Kelets, Lomzh, Lublin, Plotsk, Petrokov, Radom, Suvalki, Warsaw

Right-bank Ukraine governorates:

Kholm, Volhynian, Kiev, Podolian

Malorossiya governorates:

Chernigov, Poltava, Kharkov

Novorossiya governorates:

Don Cossack Host, Ekaterinoslav, Kherson, Taurida, Bessarabia, Crimea

Through first partition of Poland-Lithuanian Commonwealth in 1772 CE, Russia came into possession of the part of Livonia that had remained in Commonwealth control, and of eastern Belarus embracing the regions of Vitebsk, Polotsk, Mstislavl. Only the most Western part (east Galicia) went to Austria. However the territories acquired by Austria did not correspond exactly to those of former Halych-Volhynia – the Russian Empire took control of Volhynia to the north-east, including the city of Volodymyr-Volynskyi. The full official name of the new Austrian territory was the Kingdom of Galicia and Lodomeria

Russian empire annexed the vassal state of Crimean Khanate (Crimea, and most of present-day Zaphorizhia, Kherson, south-eastern Dnipropetrovsk, and western Donetsk Oblast) in 1783 CE. Russian empire acquired Southern Bug and Karbadino (in current south Ukraine) and Yedisan (Mykolaiv and Odessa oblasts of current Ukraine) in 1774 CE and 1792 CE respectively after defeating Ottoman Empire both the times.

Through second and third partitions that happened in quick succession in 1793 CE and 1795 CE, Russia acquired southern part of current Latvia (south of Riga), most part of current Lithuania including Wilno (Vilnius), most part of current Belarus including Minsk, Pinsk, Brest, most part of Right Bank Ukraine that forms current Ukraine including Lutsk, Rovno, Zhytomyr, Bratslav, and Galicia from Poland-Lithuanian Commonwealth.

In 1801 CE Russia annexed the Kingdom of Kartli-Kakheti (modern day eastern Georgia) for which a fierce tussle among Ottoman Empire, Persian Empire, and Russian Empire existed. In 1810 CE the Kingdom of Imereti (western Georgia) was annexed by Russian Empire.

Between 1808 CE and 1809 CE, Swedish Empire and Russian Empire fought over the Finnish territory of Swedish Empire. Russian Empire won the war as a result of which the Finnish territory joined Russian Empire with an identity ‘Duchy of Finland’.

Bessarabia (two-thirds of which lies within modern Moldova) was taken over by Russian Empire in 1812 CE after winning a war against Ottoman Empire.

After Napoleon’s defeat in 1813 CE, the (Polish) Duchy of Warsaw was again captured by the neighbouring empires/kingdoms. Russia gained the central and eastern part of the Duchy of Warsaw, which further extended its boundary into the Polish lands

Parts of Georgia, Dagestan, parts of northern Azerbaijan, and parts of northern Armenia were annexed from Persian Empire by Russian Empire in 1813 CE. In 1828 CE, Persian Empire ceded Caucasian region (present-day Armenia, Azerbaijan) to Russian Empire after defeat in their last major military conflict with Russia.

Between 1914 CE and 1921 CE, Russian Empire got dissolved, and Bolshevik Russia ascended; following non-east Slavic lands became independent:

(i) Principality of Finland governorates

(ii) Baltic governorates

(iii) Lithuania governorates

(iv) Congress Poland governorates

After losing most of the western parts of the Russian Empire due to a defeat by German Empire and the ensuing Brest-Litovsk Treaty in March’1918, Bolshevik Russia regained some parts of the regions that became present-day Belarus, and Ukraine. Treaty of Riga among Poland, Soviet Russia (acting also on behalf of Soviet Belarus) and Soviet Ukraine signed in 1921 CE settled the border with Poland’s gain of west Ukraine and west Belarus.
1922 CE to 1991 CE
At the time of the dissolution of the USSR in 1991 CE, the western and south-western regions of the USSR comprised of the following states:

(i) Estonian SSR

(ii) Latvian SSR

(iii) Lithuanian SSR

(iv) Byelorussian SSR

(v) Ukrainian SSR

(vi) Moldavian SSR

(vii) Georgian SSR

(viii) Armenian SSR

(ix) Azerbaijan SSR

In 1922 CE, Union treaty formally brought Russia, Ukraine, Belarus and the Transcaucasia into the USSR. Transcaucasia lands were divided in 1936 CE into Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan.

During the WW II in 1940 CE, Soviet troops annexed Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia in the Baltic Sea region whereas Romania ceded control of Bessarabia and North Bukovina to USSR which incorporated these lands as Moldavian SSR. Soviet troops also seized the west Ukraine and west Belarus lands from Poland.

At the time of the dissolution of the USSR, Ukraine consisted of the following oblasts:

(i) East: Luhansk, Donetsk, Kharkiv

(ii) North-east: Sumy, Poltava

(iii) South-east: Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, Kherson, Crimea

(iv) North-central: Kiev, Cherkasy, Chernihiv

(v) South-central: Kirovohrad, Mykolaiv, Odessa

(vi) West: Zakarpatska, Lviv, Ivano-Frankivsk

(vii) North-west: Volyn, Rivne, Zhytomyr

(viii) South-west: Ternopil, Khmelnytskyi, Chernivtsi, Vinnytsia

After formulation of the new constitution of Soviet Union, Russian, Transcaucasian, Ukrainian, and Byelorussian regions formed the Union in 1922 CE; other regions joined later on (till WW II when Baltic regions joined).

After 1922, territorial architecture of Ukraine was modified 4 times:

In 1939 CE, the region of Lviv, Ivano-Frankivsk, Ternopil, Volyn, west part of Rivne were added to west and north-west Ukraine (territories from Poland);

In 1940 CE, the southern part of Odessa and Chernivtsi were added to south-central Ukraine (territories from Romania);

In 1945 CE, the region of Zakarpatska was added to west Ukraine (Ruthenia from Czechoslovakia);

In 1954 CE, the region of Crimea was added to south-east Ukraine;

On 24 August 1991, Ukraine SSR made the proclamation of its independence. With the dissolution of USSR in December 1991 Ukraine became independent country. But the historical baggage of its territorial expanse never left it.


The most significant observations on the political history of the east Slavic society are (as evident from a critical study of the history of the east Slavic civilization):

  1. East Slavic communities spread across the vast expanses of east Europe and Central Asia were politically led by various non-Slavic aristocracies at different points of time (like Varangians, Mongols, Lithuanians, Germans) apart from the comparatively insignificant numbers of political organizations by the local Slavic aristocracy. Thus, the modern east Slavic societies possess the understanding of the political ideas/concepts which were/are prevalent in Europe and Asia as well as the cumulative experience of different styles of state formation, state administration, and warfare
  2. Ruling aristocracy in east Slavic land passed through a very interesting metamorphosis – it can be stated with high degree of certainty that, the formation of aristocracy in Slavic society was initiated in the ancient era (may be 2nd – 4th century CE) when Scythian and Sarmatian tribes were assimilated in much larger community of east Slavs; during the medieval period, numerically smaller Varangians and Mongols (who settled in the lands of east Slavs) got absorbed within the east Slavic community; the modern era similarly witnessed the assimilation of a limited number of German, Polish, Lithuanian aristocrats within the east Slavic community. It won’t be out of place to mention that such waves of assimilation created a tremendous non-tangible asset in the form of geopolitical ideas and combat acumen among the east Slavs which is unparalleled in the history of humankind
  3. It will be historically untrue to portray a picture of the political dynamics in the east Slavic civilization as a dichotomy between Kievan Rus and Muscovy Rus – the author finds that Kievan Rus and Muscovy Rus were two of the most important ‘time-space combinations’ (socio-political-economic formation in a geographic region at a specific historical time period) among (probably) a dozen of such entities. Thus Novgorod, Kazan, Belarus etc. were few other ‘time-space combinations’. And a very interesting fact about these formations was that, the common Slavs and aristocrat Boyars (more often than not, with a mixed ancestry of Slavic and non-Slavic elites) would find a common theme/platform built around a quasi-real quasi-metaphysical set of ideas/concepts to struggle for and establish a principality based on such notions (which, generally, won’t last for long)
  4. Ukraine (within its current geographic boundary) never had a ‘state’ formed by a kingdom, or an empire – its boundary has been time and again modified as an administrative region with the USSR. ‘Left-Bank’, and ‘Right-Bank’ had different trajectories of political history, ‘Novorossiya’ on the coast of Black Sea had entirely different history (refer Figure 3.1 and 3.2 given below). All those different historical ‘time-space combinations’ were put together as ‘Ukraine SSR’ within the USSR by Bolshevik Party under two key factors: (i) Bolsheviks struggled from 1917 to 1922 CE against almost the entire world – anti-Bolshevik local groups of kulaks, bankers, middle-class professionals/ burghers, monarchists, senior army officers, politicians like liberals-conservatives-democrats as well as the Menshevik socialists, plus foreign governments run by the Zionist-Capitalists like UK, (its colonies) Australia, Canada, France, Italy, Romania, Czechia, Slovakia, Japan, USA etc. – which fostered a sense of feebleness within Lenin who thought indulging in the nationalist outlook of the regional leaders (with allegiance to Bolshevik Party) could be the only way out for creating the USSR. It can be assumed that, while overruling the objections of the leaders like Stalin and Artyom, Lenin didn’t foresee the dangers of such centrifugal forces which were present in the constitution of the USSR through the clause of secession; (ii) Lenin, and thereafter Stalin created a centripetal force within the USSR by adding regions with ethnic Muscovy Rus and/or encouraging settlements of ethnic Muscovy/Novgorod Rus in other regions (i.e. SSR) – thus Novorossiya was added to Ukraine SSR, Russians were settled in Kazakhstan SSR. Bolshevik leaders thought this centripetal force can balance the centrifugal force of local nationalism, which proved to be a fatal mistake for the ‘Soviet experiment’. Because of the dissolution of the USSR in 1991, Ukraine found itself in a condition that ONLY physically resembled a ‘state’, but neither the political parties nor the oligarchy of Ukraine recognised as such, rather Ukraine state became just like an institutional means to plunder wealth in order to enrich their business!
  5. Reorganization of the administrative zones within the kingdom/empire/union in the east Slavic lands is indeed a very interesting exercise, and probably a favourite pastime for ALL heads of state at different points of time. Few of those were:

(i) A system of territorial units called razryad in 1680 CE (Moscow, Sevsk, Vladimir, Novgorod, Kazan, Smolensk, Ryazan, Belgorod chartered in 1658 CE out of the Kiev Voivodeship, Tambov, Tula, Tobol chartered no later than 1587 CE, Tom, Yenisei Razryads) which were subdivided into uyezd (canton)

(ii) In 1708 CE Tsar Peter the Great issued an edict dividing the empire into eight administrative divisions called guberniyas (Archangelgorod, Azov, Ingermanland, Kazan, Kiev, Moscow, Siberia, Smolensk) which replaced the 166 uyezds and razryads which existed before the reform

(iii) In 1727 CE Catherine I enacted another reform – a total of 166 uyezds was re-established, together with the newly created ones, the Russian Empire had approximately 250 uyezds

(iv) By 1910 CE further restructuring took place, as a result of which 104 administrative governorate units (Oblast and Governorate) existed

(v) After 1917 CE Bolshevik Party undertook a series of restructuring that transformed the earlier architecture of administrative organization


Figure 3.1:

Figure 3.2:

  1. Ukraine: Between 1991 and 2021

How Did Ukraine Economy Perform?

Economic parameters of Ukraine show how poorly the Zionist-Capitalist oligarchy and their clientele (i.e. political parties) managed Ukraine for past three decades. The following figures have been taken from Wikipedia

Figure 4.1: [link 🡪 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Ukraine ]

Ukraine used to be the most advanced union state of the USSR in terms of industrial and agricultural output and productivity. It’s a crying shame that after 25 years of so-called independence the Ukrainian political leaders and the oligarchy couldn’t steer the country’s economy to surpass the GDP (PPP in current value) figure of 1990 CE – around 350 billion USD in 1990 CE as well as in 2016 CE! It not only shows lack of economic planning, and programme implementation, but, more importantly, it also proves complete negligence on part of the ruling oligarchy. The families in 1% oligarchy (businessmen, bureaucrats, political leaders etc.) and 5% upper middle class are anyway sucking the wealth out of Ukraine through mining-manufacturing-agriculture. 80% of the common people are leading a life of destitute and underemployment.

Figure 4.2: [link 🡪 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Ukraine ]

Apart from a dysfunctional economy, the socio-political environment got vitiated so much that there has been a steady decline of population over the past three decades (refer fig. 4.3 below). There are two primary reasons for such decline: (i) reduction in total fertility rate, (ii) emigration to European and North American countries.

Figure 4.3: [link 🡪 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Ukraine#/media/File:Population_of_Ukraine_from_1950_(untitled).svg ]

How Did Zionist-Capitalist Deep State Moved Into Ukraine?

As I noted, Zionist-Capitalist clique always wanted to destroy potentially strong countries in Eurasian landmass (in fact, anywhere). In an old article in The Saker website I detailed on how two Fascist parties were developed in Germany and Italy after WW I by the Zionist-Capitalist clique in order to destroy the USSR (and those Fascist countries) [ link 🡪 https://thesaker.is/greatest-sin-of-lenin-and-stalin/ ]. During the WW II, Croatian and West Ukrainian fascist leaders and their parties indulged in more brutal and cruel pogroms than even the Nazi party could have ever imagined. Stepan Bandera, Andriy Melnyk and Symon Petliura were products of the fascist movement in west Ukraine.

After 1991 break-up of Soviet Union and Warsaw (Pact) block, USA and NATO leaders have helped rehabilitation of those fascist leaders and their ideas. In parallel the USA and NATO leaders relentlessly pushed NATO frontier – now Russia, Belarus are surrounded by NATO bases with first strike capability. New fissures are being invented across the central Asian countries to create a militant (Wahhabi) Islamic cult within the population. In the Caucasus countries, again the Hegemon is hyper-active to create anti-Russian sentiments. During past two decades ‘colour revolution’ had been applied successfully by the Zionist-Capitalist Deep State twice in Ukraine to install their flunkies in power. Finally, the objective is plain and simple – Russia will get surrounded by NATO countries, NATO military bases with nuclear capable bombers and missiles will be constructed in east European and Caucasian NATO members, Fascist Ukrainian militia backed by NATO armaments and trained by NATO ‘military specialists’ will launch frontal attack on western border of Russia – with incessant missile launching from east European NATO members Russia will not be able to defend border. Zionist-Capitalist clique assumed that Operation Barbarossa by Germany in WW II failed because Nazi Wehrmacht didn’t had any backing of conventional/biological/nuclear missiles – In the present era such issues have been taken care of by the Hegemon.

What Has Been Russia’s Stand in Ukraine?

Russian government has been voicing their discomfort about growing insecurity since past two decades. As usual, Russian concerns continue to fall on deaf ears. In 2014 CE Crimea, Donestsk, Lugansk oblasts (predominantly with Russian-speaking) decided to break away from Ukraine state. While Crimea joined Russia, Donestsk and Lugansk declared themselves as peoples’ republic.

On 17th December 2021 Russian government presented detailed security demands that include a legally binding guarantee that NATO will give up any military activity in east Europe and Ukraine. On 26th January 2022 USA sent a written response to Russia’s security demands, wherein it was repeated that NATO will continue to add new members in east Europe and Caucasus. Between 21st and 24th February 2022 Russian government recognised the peoples’ republics in east Ukraine and mobilized military to support them. President Putin also asked Ukraine government to demilitarize and denazify Ukrainian society.

  1. Ukraine’s Future: Possibilities

To begin with, I have to confess that I don’t believe in ‘future of Ukraine’ – I would rather opt for rephrasing it as ‘future of Eurasia’! I know that educated people and democratic intellectuals all over the world will shudder at my words. For them I would like to put forward a simple question – can anybody show me the trajectory of the ‘Ukraine state’ for a continuous period of at least 300 years in the last millennium during which at least 80% of the contiguous landmass of the current Ukraine was being governed by a political institution like a kingdom or a principality or an empire or a constitutional state? No, they can’t show it because it didn’t happen! A geographical landmass can’t achieve such sobriquet as a ‘state’ only through accidental incidents like dissolution of the USSR!

However, my personal opinion notwithstanding let me list down the possibilities in near future about how ‘Ukraine state’ can continue to function as a socio-political entity. While doing so, I tried to be as realistic as possible. (I haven’t really assessed the impact of current affairs in Ukraine on the countries in the Resistance Camp, which in my opinion, will also be quite substantial that requires a separate study).

Description of Political Possibilities Impact on Countries Owned by Zionist-Capitalist Clique
Possibility 1 – geopolitics remain firmly centred around the current world order
– Russian forces stay within Ukraine border for say, 1 month, and come back to Russia

– Lugansk and Donetsk governments establish their rule over the entire administrative region with the help of Russian forces

– Ukraine government, de facto and de jure accepts the new boundary as the 1991 CE Ukraine boundary minus the regions of Crimea, Lugansk, Donetsk

– Ukraine government signs treaty with Russian government on denazification of the society, demilitarisation to the extent that no army/navy/air-force, and remaining neutral without joining NATO military block

– Ukraine government completely reorganise and restructure their country with new constitution that will reflect the new realities

– USA-UK-Australia-Canada-NZ, Israel, Netherlands, Belgium, France, and few other NATO block countries will continue to: (a) sanction Russian banks, mining, energy, and other industries, (b) sanction Russian leadership personally, and

(c) undertake even more widespread campaigns to spread outright lies, disinformation and character assassination

– None of the European countries can afford to stop flow of natural gas into their country since it is much cheaper compared to sourcing LNG/PNG from West Asia and/or North America

– Military-Industrial Complex will get a much larger business from NATO governments, who know that they are lagging behind Russia (and China) in military technology

– NATO and EU will increasingly mirror each other, due to which there will be a new paradigm of international relations – geopolitics and geo-economy of Anglo and European countries will show a block-mentality

Possibility 2 – geopolitics of the current world order is in doldrums
– Russian forces stay within Ukraine border for say, 2 months, and come back to Russia

– Lugansk and Donetsk governments establish their rule over the entire administrative region with the help of Russian forces

– Kharkiv and Kherson people create new peoples’ republic with the retreat of Ukraine army, and seek recognition from Russian government

– Ukraine government, de facto and de jure accepts the new boundary as the 1991 CE Ukraine boundary minus the regions of Crimea, Lugansk, Donetsk, but refuses to accept Kharkiv and Kherson as breakaway regions

– Ukraine government signs treaty with Russian government on denazification of the society, demilitarisation to the extent that no army/navy/air-force, and remaining neutral without joining NATO military block

– Ukraine government remains at loggerheads with Kharkiv and Kherson government, hence a new constitution or administrative actions for serious house-cleaning are impossible

– USA-UK-Australia-Canada-NZ, Israel, Netherlands, Belgium, France, and few other NATO block countries will continue to: (a) sanction Russian banks, mining, energy, and other industries, (b) sanction Russian leadership personally, and

(c) undertake even more widespread campaigns to spread outright lies, disinformation and character assassination

– None of the European countries can afford to stop flow of natural gas into their country since it is much cheaper compared to sourcing LNG/PNG from west Asia or North America

– Military-Industrial Complex will get a much larger business from NATO governments, who know that they are lagging behind Russia (and China) in military technology

– NATO and EU will increasingly mirror each other, due to which there will be a new paradigm of international relations – geopolitics and geo-economy of Anglo and European countries will show a block-mentality

– NATO and EU will proactively create dozens of far-right ‘militia’ groups within Ukraine that will fight anti-Ukraine peoples’ republics and Russian forces; USA-UK-Israel-Netherlands-France will supply money and military equipment to regular Ukraine army

Possibility 3 – geopolitics churn out a new world order
– Russian forces stay within Ukraine border for longer than 2 months because of further escalation of combat scenarios

– Lugansk and Donetsk governments establish their rule over the entire administrative region with the help of Russian forces

– Many oblasts bordering Russia and Black Sea (like Kharkiv, Sumy, Zaphorizhia, Kherson, Dnipropetrovsk, Mykolaiv, Odessa) want to create new peoples’ republic with the retreat of Ukraine army, and seek recognition from Russian government

– Ukraine government refuses to accept the de facto reality and maintains its stand internationally that the legal boundary must be as per the 1991 CE USSR border; Ukraine government officially refuses to accept any breakaway region

– Ukraine government refuses to sign any treaty with Russian government on neutrality, denazification, and demilitarisation, and actively seek military help from NATO to fight Russian forces

– Russian political parties like Communist Party, United Russia and Ukrainian political parties as well as peoples representatives from all walks of life in predominantly Orthodox Christian Russia, Malorossiya, Novorossiya, Belarus, Armenia, and Georgia will come forward with an idea to create a new union that will be a truly Eurasian in letter and spirit

– A new constitution is developed where the mistakes of the earlier constitution implemented 100 years back gets rectified. A new union is born this year with a new union treaty, a new peoples’ constitution, and a new capital just beyond the Ural Mountains. The Eurasian Union will be geopolitically and economically aligned with Asia, Africa, South America continents. Jointly with China, the new union will become the beacon of hope for the rest of the humankind against the quest for wealth and power of the existing Zionist-Capitalist world order.
– Ukraine will still exist (Right Bank west Ukraine region) with Kiev, Cherkasy, Rivne, Zhytomyr, Ternopil, Khmelnytskyi, Chernivtsi, Vinnytsia Zakarpatska, Lviv, Ivano-Frankivsk, Volyn oblasts to continue its historic role as the springboard for fascist forces in east Europe. (It would be an entirely different game if Russian government decides to annihilate this venomous snake for ever from the face of earth.)

– USA-UK-Australia-Canada-NZ, Israel, Netherlands, Belgium, France, and few other NATO block countries will continue to: (a) sanction Russian banks, mining, energy, and other industries, (b) sanction Russian leadership personally, and

(c) undertake even more widespread campaigns to spread outright lies, disinformation and character assassination

– Military-Industrial Complex will get a much larger business from NATO governments, who know that they are lagging behind Russia (and China) in military technology. Space-based nuclear offensive mechanism and system as well as land-based biological warfare mechanism and system will be developed

– NATO and EU will increasingly mirror each other, due to which there will be a new paradigm of international relations – geopolitics and geo-economy of Anglo and European countries will show a block-mentality. Dissenting voices like Hungary and Serbian regions will be punished

– NATO and EU will proactively create dozens of far-right ‘militia’ groups within Ukraine that will fight anti-Ukraine peoples’ republics and Russian forces; USA-UK-Israel-Netherlands-France will supply money, military equipment, and military personnel to the regular Ukraine army; battles between Russian army and NATO detachments result in disastrous total rout for NATO

– NATO and EU countries try to create without success a new UNO where Russia (and China) will be pushed out from the security council and countries like Germany, Japan, India, Saudi Arabia, Brazil are lured to join the new institution as ‘key member’ (never mind that only the Zionist-Capitalist Deep State owns and controls the institution)

– NATO and EU countries will seek to restrict all types of normal country-to-country relations between Russia (and China) and all other countries in the world; trading, investment, cultural exchange, scientific and educational exchange with Russia (and China) will be discouraged (in case of large/powerful countries) and punished (in case of small/weak countries). EU and NATO countries will be forced to cease any business with Russia (and China), not even energy import.

  1. Conclusion

100 years back, right in this Eurasian surreal dreamland, a revolutionary leader and his comrades set out to bring light in the darkness, to bring back morality-justice in the filthy money-oriented world, but the ensuing trail of treachery of the Zionist gangs who wrecked the Bolshevik Party from within (utilising many mistakes of their leaders including Lenin) extinguished the lamp decades ago. Who knows if the people of Eurasia decide to illuminate the lamp again under the able leadership of the current leadership!

As I submit this article to The Saker blogsite, active involvement of NATO has been announced. So, the ‘possibility 1’ discussed above is ruled out. Do you think the ‘possibility 3’ can become a


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