Friday’s commemoration of Hezbollah’s late leader, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, in Iran was no ordinary event and provides an indication of how far Tehran is willing to go to preserve the Axis of Resistance in the face of Israeli escalation.
Thousands reportedly turned out for the commemoration ceremony, in which Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Sayyed Ali Khamenei led Friday prayers before addressing the gathered masses. Khamenei’s public appearance can itself be seen as both an act of defiance directed at the Axis’ enemies and a message of reassurance to its supporters, who are no doubt looking to Iran for leadership following Nasrallah’s assassination.
The Iranian leader’s public appearance comes after foreign media reports that he had been moved to an undisclosed location for safety reasons in the immediate aftermath of Nasrallah’s assassination. Perhaps more importantly, it comes on the heels of Operation True Promise 2, in which Iran launched a heavy barrage of missiles on Israel, which, according to the Iranians, hit 90 percent of their intended targets.
That operation was notably heavier-handed than the first True Promise, which came in response to Israel’s attack on Iran’s consulate in Damascus last April and marked the first direct military action by Tehran on Israel. In an article for Foreign Policy, Vali Nasr notes how Iran’s second direct attack on Israel was carried out with far less advanced warning compared to the April operation. Nasr – considered an authoritative voice in Washington on issues related to West Asia – also explained how the latest missile salvo “signaled Iran’s will and ability to attack Israel – and penetrate its defense systems in potentially damaging ways.”
True Promise 2 came in response to the assassination of Nasrallah, Hamas Political Bureau Chief Ismael Haniyeh, and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Commander Abbas Nilforushan, conveying a clear message that Iran, contrary to many assessments, was ready to escalate. This message was reinforced by Khamenei on Friday, as he delivered some fiery remarks with a rifle by his side.
“What our armed forces did was the minimum punishment for the crimes of the usurping Zionist regime,” said Khamenei in reference to Iran’s latest offensive, while warning that Tehran was ready to conduct more direct military action against Israel should the need arise.
These warnings come amid much speculation on Israel’s likely response to True Promise 2, as senior officials in Tel Aviv have pledged that Iran’s attack will not go unanswered, and the Israeli military appears to be readying a large-scale operation against Iran, with US support.
In turn, senior Iranian military officials have warned that any Israeli operations targeting Iranian soil would be met with devastating blows, far exceeding the strikes Tehran has conducted in both its previous operations.
As IRGC Deputy Commander Ali Fadavi said in a statement published by Iranian state-affiliated media:
If the occupiers make such a mistake [attack Iran], we will target all their energy sources, installations, and all refineries and gas fields.
That Iran has upped the ante dramatically in the aftermath of Nasrallah’s assassination speaks to how determined it is to demonstrate that this setback will not weaken the Axis of Resistance. Perhaps even more importantly, these latest developments speak to the special relationship between the Islamic Republic and Hezbollah.
This is reflected in the fact that Khamenei’s speech was the first time in which Iran’s supreme leader publicly addressed a mass crowd since the US assassination of IRGC Quds Force Commander Qassem Soleimani in early 2020, further highlighting the special status of Nasrallah throughout Iran, and with Khamenei, at a personal level.
A significant part of the supreme leader’s speech, however, was not directed at the crowds physically amassed for the unusual speech but rather at the regional and international supporters of the Axis of Resistance outside Iran.
Khamenei devoted half of his address to the Muslim world, naming Lebanon and Palestine specifically. It was Lebanon, however, that featured most prominently in the section of his speech delivered in Arabic. This shift in language was notable, marking the first time Iran’s supreme leader spoke publicly in Arabic since the ‘Arab Spring’ a decade ago.
Urging the supporters of the resistance not to despair, Khamenei addressed not only Hezbollah but also its close and powerful domestic ally, the Amal movement, whose leader is long-time Lebanese Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri. He also directed his message of reassurance specifically to the younger generation, whom he described as his “children” and with whom hopes lie in preserving and potentially strengthening the Axis of Resistance.
Khamenei’s remarks served to reinforce the notion of the special relationship between Iran and Hezbollah but also extended to the historic relationship between the Islamic Republic and Lebanon as a whole:
It is our duty and the responsibility of all Muslims to repay our debt to the wounded, bloodied Lebanon.
In another sign of the special status of this relationship, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi made a surprise visit to Beirut on Friday.
Hezbollah, and by extension, Lebanon’s status as a special ally for Iran, owes largely to the integral role the Lebanese resistance plays within the Axis of Resistance. An example of this is Hezbollah’s roles in places like Syria and Iraq, where the Lebanese movement was Tehran’s major partner in the fight against extremist Takfiri groups like ISIS and Al-Nusra.
Importantly, the confrontations that have taken place in Syria since 2011 can also be seen as part of the Axis’ ongoing struggle with Israel. Senior Israeli officials at the time made no secret of their desire to see Syrian President Bashar al-Assad lose power to the extremists, with Israel providing secret aid to some of those groups that were fighting the Syrian government.
The special relationship between Iran and Lebanon’s Hezbollah puts Washington in a dilemma. While the White House has publicly declared its opposition to wider regional war and its reluctance to be party to one, it can no longer rely on Iranian restraint to avoid that scenario. This owes to the fact that the stakes have become simply too high for Tehran following the recent unprecedented Israeli escalation on the Lebanese front.
Iran’s missile attacks on 1 October have shown that the Iran–Hezbollah special relationship is something Tehran’s leadership is not willing to forgo, whatever the costs. What remains to be seen is how far the United States is willing to go in its own special relationship with Israel.