UAE’s ‘OPEXIT’ deepens rift with Riyadh as oil power struggle spills globally
Mawadda Iskandar, The Cradle, April 30, 2026 —
Abu Dhabi’s break with OPEC signals a decisive shift in Gulf power politics, where energy strategy now doubles as a battleground for regional supremacy.
On 28 April, the UAE announced its formal withdrawal from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the OPEC+ alliance, with the decision set to take effect on 1 May.
The move ends decades of membership in one of the most influential blocs in global energy markets and marks a clear turning point in Abu Dhabi’s approach to oil policy and regional alignment.
Abu Dhabi framed the withdrawal as the outcome of a comprehensive review of its current and future production strategy, citing rapid shifts in global energy markets and mounting geopolitical pressures in the Persian Gulf.
These pressures have intensified following US-Israeli aggression against Iran, disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz, and the cascading effects on global supply chains. Officials stressed that exiting OPEC does not signal a retreat from market stability, but reflects a desire to respond more freely to demand based on national priorities.
In his first official comment, UAE Energy Minister Suhail al-Mazrouei described the step as a “sovereign national decision,” adding that Saudi Arabia, Russia, and the OPEC Secretariat were formally notified ahead of the announcement.
The withdrawal ends Abu Dhabi’s membership in an organization it joined in 1967 – four years before the UAE’s formation – within a framework established in 1960 to coordinate oil policies among leading producers and stabilize global markets.
Abu Dhabi recalibrates its oil weight
The UAE’s exit reflects a broader repositioning in the global oil market, shaped by its substantial reserves and production capacity. With roughly 120 billion barrels of reserves, it ranks sixth globally, giving it significant leverage in supply calculations.
It is also OPEC’s third-largest producer, pumping around 3.4 million barrels per day (bpd) before the recent escalation, accounting for about four percent of global output. That figure dropped to roughly 1.9 million bpd in March, underscoring the volatility driven by supply disruptions.
This fluctuation is closely tied to the UAE’s exposure through the Strait of Hormuz. In 2025, the country exported about 2.02 million bpd of crude and 1.22 million bpd of petroleum products, bringing total shipments through the strait to approximately 3.24 million bpd. As tensions intensified, crude exports fell to around 1.6 million bpd.
At the same time, the export structure itself came under strain. Attacks on oil facilities in Fujairah triggered partial shutdowns, fires at export terminals, and interruptions to loading operations. The fallout was immediate, disrupting flows through one of the region’s most critical energy hubs. Fujairah’s petroleum inventories have since dropped below seven million barrels, the lowest level on record.
These shocks have reverberated across the broader economy. Investor flight wiped out an estimated $120 billion in value, while the tourism sector – responsible for roughly $70 billion annually and about 12 percent of GDP – took a direct hit.
The UAE has also faced sustained military pressure. According to its Defense Ministry, the country was targeted by approximately 550 ballistic and cruise missiles and more than 2,200 drones, pushing it to seek Israeli interception systems to shield critical infrastructure.
Cracks inside OPEC widen
The UAE’s withdrawal does not stand in isolation. It reflects years of accumulating friction inside OPEC over production quotas and market management. What gives this moment weight is the departure of a major producer at a time when global energy markets are already unsettled.
In practical terms, the decision does not immediately alter global supply. The UAE is stepping outside a quota system that had already constrained its output on paper more than in reality. Its official quota stood at roughly 3.411 million bpd, while combined exports of crude and derivatives reached around 4.5 million bpd.
In effect, Abu Dhabi had already been operating beyond its assigned limits, meaning the shift is less about volume and more about removing institutional constraints.
Inside OPEC, however, the implications run deeper. The exit strips the organization of a key player in quota negotiations and internal balancing. OPEC’s stability has long relied on managing tensions among heavyweight producers. As that collective discipline erodes, the political impact of Abu Dhabi’s move outweighs any immediate market effect.
The decision also aligns with longstanding pressure from US President Donald Trump, who has repeatedly attacked OPEC for driving up prices. Washington’s push to weaken coordinated production frameworks finds an opening in the current fragmentation.