On the Military Occupation and Regime Change in Syria and its Consequences for the Islamic Republic of Iran and the Axis of Resistance
“10 Mehr” Group’s Statement, December 18, 2024 —
After more than a decade of military occupation, imposition of civil war, and deadly economic sanctions by US. imperialism and its regional allies, the legitimate government of Syria was finally brought to its knees, and the rebranded group of al-Qaeda terrorists occupied Damascus in a blitzkrieg and implement imperialism’s long-term plan for regime change in Syria with direct military assistance from the U.S. and Israel and support from Turkey and the reactionary states of the region.
The recent developments in Syria, with the entry of the terrorist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) into Damascus and the departure of Bashar al-Assad from the country, will have profound consequences for the Axis of Resistance, Iran’s foreign policy, and the balance of forces in the Middle East. These developments, along with Hezbollah’s weakened military position, Russia’s reduced presence in Syria due to the Ukraine conflict, and Turkey’s equivocal policies in the region, have paved the way for a re-assessment of Iran’s role in the Axis of Resistance.
The fall of Bashar al-Assad and the subsequent developments had resulted in important changes in regional and international equations. These developments are occurring within the broader context of geopolitical rivalries and challenges in the Middle East and the world and can have profound effects on the security and strategic considerations of Iran and its allies in the Axis of Resistance. This event has not only affected the geopolitical equations of the Middle East but is also likely to lead to new alignments among regional states and global powers. Syria, which for decades acted as a key link in the chain of resistance against Israel and the West-Arab axis, has now become an arena of regional and international rivalries.
The fall of Bashar al-Assad not only signifies the end of an era in Syria’s political history, but with the loss of one of Iran’s most important allies in the Middle East, the Axis of Resistance in Syria will face serious internal and external difficulties. The weakening of the Axis of Resistance has diminished Iran’s maneuvering ability in the face of the challenges posed by the increased military presence of Israel, Turkey, and the United States.
The Rapid Collapse of the Syrian State and
Pointing Fingers of Blame at Bashar al-Assad
The rapid collapse of the Syrian government has led many who do not have a proper understanding of imperialism’s plots and the objective, historical global trends — and who base their assessments and analyses only on momentary and transient events — to blaming Bashar al-Assad and the Syrian government for the present defeat. Some, in line with the imperialist network CNN, even go so far as referring to the difficult situation of the Syrian people, including the economic crisis and high poverty rates in recent years, call this event as a “people’s revolution” against an “incompetent dictatorship.” But the reality is that this was neither a “people’s revolution” nor the result of the “dictatorship” and “incompetency” of Bashar al-Assad’s government.
First, no “popular revolution” is launched militarily and with the help of imperialism from outside the borders of a country. Calling this event a “revolution” can only mean endorsing imperialism’s policy of regime change in Syria, and calling the terrorists trained and armed by the U.S. and Israel “the people.” This is nothing less than distorting the objective facts, calling an imperialist “counter-revolution” a “popular revolution,” and thereby throwing dust in the eyes of the people in accordance with imperialist propaganda. The same plot was carried out once before in 2011, and the Syrian people, despite all the difficulties caused by the imposed situation, stood by their government and army for 14 years. Their stunned silence today cannot, and should not, be taken as an endorsement of this counter-revolution. The road is way too long. A little patience will show where the Syrian people really stand.
Second, the plight of the people and widespread poverty in Syria would only be attributed to the “incompetency” of the Syrian government, only if we ignore the decades of imposed war, the deadly imperialist economic sanctions, and the blatant theft of Syria’s oil resources by the occupying U.S. forces. Since 1979, the Syrian government has been on the U.S. list of “state sponsors of terrorism” and has been subject to severe sanctions due to its firm and consistent support for the Iranian Revolution and the Hezbollah; sanctions that have become increasingly severe every day due to the Syrian government’s increasing resistance, and have finally reached their maximum intensity in the form of the “Caesar Act,” which has led to the collapse of the Syrian economy since 2019. The stark contrast between Syria’s prosperous and growing economy before 2011 and the deadly consequences of these sanctions after 2011 can be clearly seen in a report published by the “Sanctions Kill” campaign. Our world has witnessed the same historical facts in the cases of Yugoslavia, Afghanistan, Libya, Iraq, etc. — all governments that were overthrown by imperialism. Those who ignore these undeniable facts and direct their attacks at the victims instead of imperialism and Zionism, willingly or unwillingly, become the propaganda mouthpieces of the enemies of the people.
“Strategic Defeat” or Heavy Military Blow?
Parallel with these baseless claims about Assad’s “incompetent dictatorship” and the “people’s revolution” in Syria, we are also faced with the more dangerous claim that the fall of Syria constitutes a “strategic defeat” for the foreign policy of the Islamic Republic of Iran. This claim became the headline of the imperialist media, and in line with them, the domestic pro-West factions and their “analyst” mouthpieces, immediately after he occupying forces entered Damascus.
There can be no doubt for a moment that this is a very important military, and in many ways decisive, defeat for the Resistance Front in the region. The fall of Syria, as one of the main pillars of the Axis of Resistance and the bridge between Iran, Hezbollah, and the resistance movement in Palestine, has seriously damaged the military effectiveness of the Resistance Front. The fall of Syria has disconnected logistical link between Iran and Hezbollah and has faced Hezbollah with serious problems in securing the equipment, weapons, and resources it needs to continue its resistance against Israel. On the other hand, with the fall of Syria and its geopolitical consequences, Israel and its permanent supporter, the United States, have been given the free hand to pillage the region. Israel has already expanded its military dominance over the Golan Heights, and Israeli tanks and troops have advanced to the vicinity of Damascus. The United States, in turn, continues to bomb Syrian cities, military bases and installations, and economic infrastructure, and is trying to eliminate the possibility of the emergence of any form of resistance in the new Syria. The region is now in a situation where the United States and Israel dare to talk about a direct attack on Iran and moving towards the ethnic disintegration of the country.
But none of these mean a “strategic defeat” of the Axis of Resistance and the regional policy of the Islamic Republic of Iran. It is obvious that such a major military defeat requires a serious and in-depth assessment of the new situation, of policies and tactics adopted in the past, of the new emerging dangers and threats, and of the continuing possibilities and potentials for the Axis of Resistance, and on this basis, adoption of new tactics that are in line with the requirements of the new objective conditions in the region. But such assessments should not be driven by a sense of despair and a baseless admission of the “strategic defeat” of the Axis of Resistance and the regional policy of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Rather, they should be carried out with the goal of paving the way for the successful continuation of the struggle after suffering a major, but temporary, military defeat.
Those who today speak of the “strategic defeat” of the Axis of Resistance and the regional policy of the Islamic Republic of Iran are either speaking for U.S. imperialism and the Zionist state of Israel, who have the “strategic defeat” of the Axis of Resistance as their goal and interest and their wish to achieve it; or are the pro-West Iranian forces who have been opposed to the whole “resistance strategy” from the very beginning and now see in this military defeat an opportunity for abandoning the entire strategy of resistance and returning to the laps of the U.S. and the West. According to these pre-West forces, the military defeat in Syria showed that the idea of resistance against U.S. and Israel has been a futile and wrong idea and should be abandoned. Following such a flawed reasoning, one could also say that the people of Palestine, who have been struggling against Israel’s criminal occupation and repression for the past 75 years, should have also submitted to Israel’s military superiority and given up resistance against Zionist occupiers of their homeland after the first military defeat.
For those genuinely committed to this perspective, history will provide its verdict through the objective laws governing the struggles of oppressed masses. Our message, however, is directed at those who are sincerely concerned about the future of the Revolution, our country’s independence, and the territorial integrity of our homeland: This military defeat is not the end of the road. The sky has not fallen! Under no circumstances should we allow this setback to become a tool for the enemy to instill despair among fighters or deter them from continuing their strategic path — that is, resisting imperialism and Zionism and working to end their dominance over the region. At this stage, what has occurred is the loss of a specific stronghold. While this defeat is significant, the broader struggle for liberation continues unabated, and history’s trajectory favors its ultimate victory. We must bear in mind the wise advice of Ayatollah Khamenei: “neither exaggerate nor downplay.” Following this advice is more crucial now than ever before.
Regional Developments Should Be Understood
in the Context of the Transition to a Multipolar World
The temporary nature of this military setback becomes clearer when recent regional developments are viewed within the context of the broader struggle toward a multipolar world. For nearly two decades, a global movement for dismantling imperialism’s unilateral dominance has been forming and gaining momentum, as peoples around the world one after the other rise against this hegemony. The unipolar order that emerged after the dissolution of the Soviet Union and the socialist bloc is in decline, with an increasing number of nations joining this global struggle every day.
This process, which began in the early 21st century with the rapid economic rise of China and Russia’s reassertion of an independent role in international politics, entered a new qualitative phase with the entry of Russian forces into Ukraine. For the first time, resistance to imperialist hegemony shifted from a defensive posture to active engagement. Russia’s successive victories in Ukraine, coupled with the heroic uprising of the Palestinian people on October 7, demonstrated to imperialist powers, particularly the United States, that their hegemonic order is nearing its end. They realized that they needed to use any means at their disposal to halt this process before reaches the point of no return.
In this context, dismantling the Axis of Resistance in the critical region of Middle East — the loss of which could make the transition to a multipolar world irreversible — became the top priority for imperialist powers. This urgency was exacerbated by Iran’s abandonment of its hesitant policy toward the West and its pivotal move toward Russia and China under the administration of the martyred President Raisi, and Iran’s adoption of a more active role in support of the Palestinian liberation movement, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and the Houthis in Yemen.
The task of dismantling the Axis of Resistance was assigned to the Zionist state of Israel, United States’ largest military outpost in the Middle East. Israel carried out its mission through committing the crime of genocide in Gaza, assassinating political and military leaders of the Axis of Resistance in Iran and Lebanon, and bombing Iran’s embassy in Damascus, among other crimes. These acts aimed to intimidate Iran and compel the Axis of Resistance to capitulate. However, Iran’s resolute response in the form of the heroic “True Promise 1” and “True Promise 2” operations, alongside the intensification of resistance in Palestine, Lebanon, and Yemen, sent a clear message to the U.S. and Israel that the Axis of Resistance has no intention of surrendering and that the only option left for them is a direct military intervention in Syria as the critical link between Iran and Hezbollah — especially since decades of crippling economic sanctions, and over a decade of civil war, had already left the Syrian state and its military in a precarious situation, rendering the country a seemingly ripe target.
Why Didn’t Iran and Russia Intervene Directly
to Prevent Assad’s Fall?
Many now ask why Iran and Russia refrained from direct intervention to prevent the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s government. Some go even further by accusing Russia of “betrayal” and Iran of “inaction.” However, such claims have no basis in objective reality for several reasons:
1. The transition toward a multipolar world is a multifaceted and intricate process requiring the careful placement and alignment of numerous economic, social, political, and diplomatic elements on the global stage. Each component must be prepared and properly positioned over time. At the current stage, the focus of this transition is primarily on laying the frameworks for economic cooperation, building political and diplomatic relations, and signing cooperation agreements among nations on regional and global levels. In other words, the continuity and success of this process depends on maintaining a certain level of peace and tranquility at the international level. On the opposing side, imperialist powers, unable to counter this global trend peacefully, rely on the only tool at their disposal — militarism and war — to disrupt and, if possible, completely halt its progression. Countries like China, Russia, and Iran, which play leading roles in this movement, are keenly aware of the fact that the balance of military power still favors U.S. imperialism and its NATO war machine. Thus, they intentionally avoid falling into imperialist trap of drawing them into a military confrontation. This deliberate strategy has been followed, specially by Russia and Iran, in the Middle East in recent years.
2. The United States and Israel launched this offensive at a time when Syria was at its weakest, Russia was engaged in a war against NATO in Ukraine, and Iran was grappling with numerous political, economic, and social issues following its most recent presidential election. Expecting Russia, preoccupied with Ukraine, an Iran, unprepared domestically, to engage in a new war against the U.S. and Israel in Syria would be entirely unrealistic and unreasonable.
3. Intervention in Syria would have required the deployment of ground forces of these two counties into the Syrian territory. Beyond the logistical challenges of such an operation in the short term, this could have drawn other regional powers into the conflict, escalating it into the very all-out regional war that both Iran and Russia, along with the global movement, have consciously sought to avoid. Such an action would also have represented a departure from the Axis of Resistance’s strategic principle of sustained, long-term war of attrition.
4. Despite heavy military losses, this deliberate and calculated retreat preserved the possibility of continuing the struggle on political, social, and even diplomatic fronts outside of the military confrontation. It creates opportunities for reclaiming the militarily lost ground through other means. There is no doubt that the sectarian and ethnic rifts among the various occupying terrorist factions, as well as conflicts of interest among Turkey, Israel, and the United States, will soon surface and undermine the cohesion of this so-called military victory. Furthermore, it is inevitable that popular resistance forces in Syria will rise. This calculated retreat also increases the chances of preserving Russia’s military base in Syria, a strategic asset in countering NATO — a critical Russian military outpost in the heart of the Mediterranean which serves the interests of global resistance movement.
Imperialist hegemony is declining, and a new order is emerging. The global battle we face today may occasionally result in temporary retreats or even defeats on certain fronts, but the advancement of this global movement cannot be stopped. Let us not forget that after years of U.S. and NATO military occupations of Afghanistan and Iraq, neither country remains under the U.S. or Western control. Syria’s fate will not be different in this regard.
Recent Regional Developments and
the New Challenges Facing Iran
The recent events in Syria and the fall of Bashar al-Assad have brought about significant changes in regional and international equations, with profound implications for Iran and the Axis of Resistance. With the loss of one of its most important allies in the region, Iran faces substantial challenges in maintaining its position and it security in the Middle East. On the one hand, Assad’s fall poses serious threats to the Axis of Resistance and the reduction of Iran’s influence in Syria and the broader region. On the other hand, the West, led by the United States, is seeking to use the newfound military advantage in Syria and the region to increase pressure on Iran and push it toward negotiations, and total submission to U.S. and Israeli demands, from a position of weakness.
Domestically, the fall of Assad and the subsequent changes in the Axis of Resistance could empower pro-West forces to exert greater pressure on the leadership for negotiating and compromising with the West. These challenges could lead to serious political confrontations at the level of domestic and foreign policy making, thus seriously threatening the country’s national security. Meanwhile, the enemy is already laying the groundwork for its next moves against Iran. Discussions of bombing Iran’s nuclear facilities are being raised. Israeli security officials, openly speaking in their state-run media, advocate policies aimed at fragmenting Iran and dividing the country into ethnically distinct regions. There is also talk of reigniting social unrests of the type of the “Women, Life, Freedom” riot. The potential for exploitation of Iran’s Achilles’ heel, about which we had repeatedly warned — the existing internal economic, political, and social fissures — has now become an urgent and tangible reality.
The enemy is actively planning from within and without to deliver a final blow to Iran. Time is short, and the moment for decisive action has arrived. To avert such a disaster, the country urgently needs revolutionary decisiveness and unity in its leadership; national solidarity in defense of the homeland; and a mass mobilization of all revolutionary forces thropughout society.
As it regards the need for decisiveness and unity within the country’s leadership, the first essential step is to abandon any inclinations toward capitulation to imperialism and the collective West under the pretext of the recent military setback. Those who have turned their perennial calls for “negotiation with the United States” into demanding screams — even if they are sincere in their analysis — fail to consider this crucial point that negotiations between a victorious army and a militarily defeated party can result in nothing but total surrender. What motivation would a victorious adversary have to engage in negotiations, and what demands would it put forth other than insisting on Iran’s complete capitulation and the cessation of its resistance? Such a course of action would not only constitute a betrayal of the peoples of the region, but also an abandonment of the global resistance front against imperialism — and ultimately, an end to Iran’s 1979 Revolution.
In direct contrast, we firmly believe that the time has come to discard all illusions regarding the intentions and objectives of imperialism and standing firmly against it. Instead of tying our hopes to the “benevolent intentions” of imperialist powers and their Western and regional allies, Iran must cut once and for all its remaining “umbilical cord” with these forces, who have been responsible for our countless calamities in our country over the past four decades, and who are now destroying Syria. Iran must resolutely recommit to the pro-East policy of the late President Raisi’s administration and even intensify it. Iran must accelerate its strategic relationships with China and Russia unequivocally affirm its stance in this global struggle. The most urgent step at this juncture is to bolster the nation’s defense capabilities, particularly through the finalization of the mutual defense pact with Russia that has been left lingering. Likewise, the implementation of the already signed economic agreements with China should be resumed immediately, and Iran’s relationship with China must be elevated to the level of a mutual defense pact. Iran’s pro-East policy must be elevated to a firm strategy of “Alliance with the East and Global South,” and take a more active and operational form. At the same time, any sabotage or obstruction of this path —be it by individuals or institutions of the state — must be dealt with decisively. Any hesitation in this matter will inevitably lead to ultimate defeat.
But none of these steps will be successful without a national unity in defense of the country and the Revolution. The historical economic, political, and social fissures created over the past four decades, along with the presence of enemy infiltrators within society and even within the state institutions, can easily be exploited by the enemy to disrupt national security and disintegration of Iran. We have repeatedly emphasized that military deterrence, although a necessary condition, is not sufficient. Iran — if not more, at least as much as military deterrence — requires an internal popular deterrence. This type of popular deterrence cannot be ensured by force or silencing the voices of protesters and the opposition. It requires the urgent removal of the existing economic, political, and social divisions. The imposed sanctions and the neoliberal economic policies have broken the back of working class and other toiling masses of the country and have crippled the Iranian economy. Iranian women are under dual pressure. National, ethnic and religious minorities in Iran feel forgotten. The current critical conditions demand swift and practical steps to address these issues. In these dangerous war conditions, this is the only way to establish popular deterrence and ensure the country’s national security. This is a major task that requires a firm class-based approach by the leadership of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The forty-year delay in this area has brought us to where we are today. The only result of further delay will be the complete collapse and partition of the country. The bitter experience of failure in Syria is before our eyes. We must learn the necessary lessons from it. We must set aside group and factional disputes, and act based on Iran’s national interests in this critical situation.
At the same time, defending the homeland and the Revolution is not possible without the organized presence of revolutionary masses on the scene; something that has now become an urgent necessity in the current critical situation. More than four decades of preventing the organization of the masses in political parties, labor unions, and civil associations has weakened the social base of the state power. A disorganized and shapeless mass, no matter how revolutionary, will not be able to defend the country and the Revolution. This is a deficiency that must be addressed to overcome the ongoing internal conspiracies of the enemy in the current situation. Immediate action must be taken to create and strengthen popular mass organizations in defense the Revolution and resistance. As Mr. Khamenei emphasized in his speech on December 8, 2024, in a meeting with the Basij forces:
To make the country, the nation, and the Revolution invulnerable, there is an urgent need for a broad, massive popular force, because the Revolution belongs to the people; the country belongs to the people. More than any other factor or element, it is the people who can defend their country and their Revolution, provided that a path is opened for them … for the comprehensive material and spiritual defense of our national identity, our national security, and the interests of the people….
Yes, ultimately, it is the people who can defend our “national identity” and “national security,” both internationally and domestically. The people must once again be organized and mobilized to defend the Revolution and the resistance strategy of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Only by relying on them can we must prevent the politicians who hold power from sliding toward abandoning the strategy of Resistance and submitting to the imperialist and Zionist plans for the region and Iran.
A fierce global struggle for the establishment of a more balanced order is underway, and our Iran plays a key role in this battle. Many of the peoples of the region and the world are pinning their hopes on Iran’s continued resistance. Let us not allow a temporary military defeat to hinder us from playing the role that this historical process has assigned to our homeland. Victory and defeat are part of the struggle, but every loss and the lessons learned from it is a step toward achieving victory. The only factor for ultimate defeat is the loss of revolutionary hope, and this is exactly what the enemies of the people are trying to impose upon the masses.
Ultimate victory belongs to the masses who resist.
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(1) Roberta Rivolta, “Economic War Against Syria,” “Sanctions Kill” website, December 5, 2024.
* Translated from original Farsi text.