Joint Chinese–Pakistani military ops to wipe out terror?
F.M. Shakil, The Cradle, November 26, 2024 ̶
Fed up with Pakistan’s inability to curb terror attacks against Chinese workers, Beijing will reportedly participate in a joint military operation against militants in the restive Balochistan region. It’s either that or future investments in cash-strapped Pakistan will be on indefinite hold.
Beijing and Islamabad appear to have forged a strategy to launch a major joint military operation in Pakistan’s volatile Balochistan province against Baloch insurgents, who have killed dozens of Chinese nationals working on various projects.
Unconfirmed reports suggest that Iran, given its shared border with Pakistan in Balochistan, is also in the loop. Earlier this year, both countries conducted air raids targeting the militant sanctuaries along their shared border amid speculation that the situation could escalate.
This week, the terrorist group Jaish al-Adl, based in Iran’s Sistan and Balochistan province, said that Islamabad and Tehran launched a joint military operation in the country’s southwestern border area and killed 12 of their militants.
The Iranian rights organization Halvash also confirmed this report on the social media platform X. However, Pakistan’s foreign office has dismissed reports of a joint operation near Saravan, an Iranian city close to Pakistan’s Panjgur district in Balochistan, labeling it “fake news.”
In an attempt to alleviate Beijing’s frustration and demonstrate Pakistan’s commitment to countering the groups behind repeated attacks on Chinese workers, on 19 November, the Federal Apex Committee – a key civil-military consultative body on counterterrorism – approved a decisive military operation against militants in Balochistan.
CPEC under threat?
Pakistan’s slow response to the escalating militancy, which has resulted in the deaths of a significant number of Chinese workers involved in a variety of projects within the country, appears to have angered China.
Last month, Beijing sent a clear message to Islamabad through its diplomatic corps, threatening to halt any further Chinese investment in the country until Pakistan clamps down on the militancy.
Dr Ghulam Ali, Deputy Director of the Hong Kong Research Center for Asian Studies, tells The Cradle:
“Stability is of greater significance to China than political systems, ideologies, and any other factor. Pakistan has been experiencing protracted instability and an escalating level of terrorism, with a particular emphasis on Chinese nationals. This is in stark contrast to China’s preferences.”
He notes that despite deploying over 15,000 troops under a two-star general – at significant taxpayer expense – the Pakistani military has failed to end the threat to Chinese nationals.
Dr Ali explains Beijing’s position succinctly: “China desires the safety of its citizens and entities in Pakistan. Nevertheless, Pakistan has consistently failed to guarantee this, despite the use of slogans such as ‘ironclad’ and ‘foolproof.’”
Should the situation fail to improve, China will likely go ahead with its threat of suspending future investments. The recent lack of commitment to the second phase of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), even during Chinese Premier Li Qiang’s visit, only underscores China’s growing hesitation.
Pulling out of Pakistan
The most recent report from Mettis Global, a financial data-analysis company, disclosed that China’s rethinking of its investments stems directly from Islamabad’s inability to prevent repeated attacks. In October, China ceased investments in Pakistan’s power sector, reflecting its security concerns.
The Century Steel Group, a prominent Chinese conglomerate, further exacerbated the situation by announcing on 22 November that it was pulling out of Pakistan due to unresolved bureaucratic issues. With an initial investment of $30 million and plans to expand to $200 million, the withdrawal is a blow to Pakistan’s economic prospects.
The steel giant’s CEO Li Chunjian informed Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif in a letter that the company has resolved to terminate its operations and retract its investment due to numerous unresolved issues with the governmental bodies tasked with managing foreign direct investment in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).
The group has already invested $30 million in the steel industries out of a total investment of $85 million allocated to the first phase – and intends to significantly increase investments in the upcoming second and third phases.
“This will be our last notice to the Government of Pakistan; if the problems are not resolved immediately, we will start dismantling the plant from the RSEZ [Rashakai Special Economic Zone],” Chunjian said in his letter.
Chinese boots on the ground?
The timing of the military operation announcement coincides with the arrival of Chinese troops in Pakistan for a joint counterterrorism military exercise that will continue until mid-December. The presence of Chinese forces at this pivotal moment is both intriguing and telling, raising questions about the scope of China’s involvement in what remains a turbulent region.
There are also reports – unconfirmed but widely discussed – that China has pressured Pakistan to allow its troops to directly protect Chinese nationals. Such a demand, if true, reflects Beijing’s growing mistrust of Pakistan’s security apparatus.
As Abdullah Khan, managing director of the Pakistan Institute for Conflict and Security Studies, calls the presence of Chinese troops in Pakistan, at a time when Pakistan announced an operation in Balochistan, a sheer coincidence, he notes:
“As far as joint security operations are concerned, I do not think Chinese troops would participate in grand action on the ground. The Chinese may play an advisory role while the lead role will remain with the Pakistan army. However, the resumption of joint counterterrorism exercises after a break of five years does indicate unanimity on a joint initiative to counter the menace of terrorism … We do not expect these 300 Chinese troops to engage in any on-ground combat role.”
Nevertheless, authorities in Islamabad remain tight-lipped regarding the specifics and time frame of this operation. Pakistani Defense Minister Khawaja Muhammad Asif was unavailable to provide any comments, despite The Cradle’s numerous attempts to reach him.
An uneasy parallel with the US
However, a source in Pakistan’s defense ministry reveals to The Cradle that China’s demand for a joint security mechanism is still under review. Resistance among senior military officials, he says, is strong – granting Chinese troops a formal role would imply a failure of Pakistan’s forces to safeguard Chinese interests. Allowing such a presence could undermine the perceived strength of the Pakistani military.
Khan, who advocates for a China-Pakistan joint push against militancy, insists that the changing security dynamics of South Asia necessitate bold decisions. Drawing a comparison with the US military bases established in Pakistan during the Afghan War in 1979 and again during the Global War on Terrorism in 2001, he reminds that the relationship between China and Pakistan is unique:
“Public perception matters, and this is where China holds a unique advantage.While the US partnership had temporarily suppressed terrorist networks, it also exacerbated anti-US sentiments in the country, fueled extremism, and led to devastating terrorist attacks across Pakistan.”
Pakistanis, Khan argues, widely view China as a trustworthy and strategic partner, in contrast to the US’s historical perception as an external power with self-serving interests. A partnership with Beijing, he believes, holds the promise of stability without the ideological baggage.
Meanwhile, at the Apex Committee meeting in Islamabad, Prime Minister Sharif, alongside Chief of Army Staff General Syed Asim Munir and key provincial leaders, have decided that the impending military campaign will focus on militant outfits like the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA), Majeed Brigade, Balochistan Liberation Front (BLF), and Balochistan Raaji Ajoi-R-Sangar – all of whom have targeted Chinese workers. Yet, the exact start date for this operation remains unclear.
For now, Beijing is watching closely, its patience tested by signs of continued instability. The coming weeks may determine whether Pakistan’s assurances are enough or if Chinese investment – and, with it, the future of CPEC – will be put on indefinite hold.