Gaza’s ceasefire caught in a political minefield
The Cradle, February 17, 2025 ─
With violations mounting and mediation on shaky ground, the latest prisoner exchange between the Palestinian resistance and the occupation state may be the calm before a new storm.
The handover of the sixth batch of Israeli prisoners from Gaza, numbering three, exchanged for 369 Palestinian detainees on 15 February, proceeded “smoothly.” Contrary to US President Donald Trump’s dire warnings that “all hell is going to break out” if all remaining Israeli prisoners were not released by the end of the week, the deal held – for now. But the precarious march through a political minefield is far from over.
First mine: Fragile mediation
Palestinian resistance forces initially stepped back, allowing Egyptian and Qatari mediators, with Turkiye in the background, to assume the role of “guarantor.” Yet, sources within the resistance inform The Cradle that any failure to uphold commitments will not only reset their stance but harden it further.
According to the sources, the decision to delay prisoner handovers originated in Gaza, particularly at the military level, while political leaders abroad viewed negotiations with more optimism. Meanwhile, newly emerging military and political figures have been instructed to go back into hiding – a sign of uncertainty.
Mediation remains fraught with roadblocks, including the occupation state’s refusal to allow desperately needed mobile homes or heavy machinery for the rubble removal into Gaza, fearing they could be repurposed for weapons manufacturing. Instead, higher-cost wooden mobile homes, funded by Qatar, were proposed, yet at the time of writing, not a single one of the promised 60,000 has been delivered.
The resistance had warned that it would not hand over the prisoners if Tel Aviv did not abide by the terms of the agreement. However, it chose to give mediators time while documenting at least 269 Israeli violations over 23 days, including:
As of now, the resistance has secured 53,147 tents out of the 200,000 agreed upon – each with an iron mast to withstand winter storms. Aid truck deliveries have risen to approximately 800 daily, retroactively covering the backlog from the 24-day period when only 500–600 entered daily. Yet, this meets only 50 percent of the promised aid.
Hamas originally planned to delay the fifth exchange to pressure Israel into allowing more tents, mobile homes, food, fuel, and other essential supplies, but when occupation forces hadn’t fully withdrawn from the Netzarim corridor, they postponed the move to ensure this critical objective was met.
Second mine: Trump’s strategic ambiguity
In an attempt to avoid appearing weak, Trump threw a curveball at the occupation government, declaring his demand was for the release of all prisoners, not just batches of three. Now, Tel Aviv must decide whether to push forward or stall, while Trump, in typical fashion, claims he will stand behind any decision Israel makes.
Is this mere rhetoric, an attempt to shift responsibility, or a calculated step to accelerate the deal and take credit for brokering it? Either way, Hamas remains unfazed.
After weeks of Israeli stalling, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu finally agreed to facilitate talks on the second phase of the Gaza ceasefire agreement, following phone calls with US envoy Steve Witkoff. Netanyahu had initially avoided setting a date to review Israel’s stance on the second phase negotiations, but decided on Sunday night to hold discussions on Monday. His decision to convene a Cabinet meeting came after Witkoff’s intervention, marking a shift in Israel’s approach. However, in light of the fact that Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich has been threatening to collapse Netanyahu’s coalition if the ceasefire deal is completed, Israel’s state broadcaster reported Monday that Netanyahu assured Smotrich that second phase negotiations would not begin without Cabinet approval. It remains unclear what new conditions or obstacles Tel Aviv may introduce as talks move forward.
The resistance group’s sources tell The Cradle that the blockade’s tightening and Israeli violations of the agreement aim to turn public frustration against the movement. But as one Hamas leader puts it, “If there must be confrontation, let it be with the occupation as we are still in a state of war.”
Between 14 and 16 February, Israeli public opinions and statements were conflicting. The far-right demanded war, while more “moderate” voices insisted on completing the exchange. Protests surged in the streets, amplified by Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad’s (PIJ) strategic decision not to release entire settler families together – keeping some prisoners behind to fuel uncertainty and pressure from the Israeli public on the government.
Hours after the latest handover on 16 February, Israel resumed committing violations: airstrikes targeting aid workers in Rafah killed four, delays stalled the travel of the 14th batch of medical patients, and authorities refused entry for mobile homes and heavy machinery needed for rebuilding efforts.
Despite the ceasefire agreement taking effect three weeks ago, Israel has only allowed four heavy-duty vehicles into Gaza so far – even though at least 500 are needed. It also blocked construction materials for hospital repairs and barred Turkish aid trucks unless Turkish logos were removed.
Third mine: The ‘Day After’ plan
The most dangerous obstacle looms ahead: Trump’s long-term vision for Gaza, which Netanyahu echoes as his “new plan for the day after.” Hamas suspects the entire prisoner exchange is a deceitful scheme organized by Tel Aviv and Washington – an excuse to secure the release of hostages before resuming the war and carrying out forced displacement. For this reason, Hamas sees no need to continue the exchange.
However, Israeli and Arab discussions suggest that Trump’s remarks were a deliberate shock tactic not necessarily meant to explode the situation but rather to push all parties toward compromise and a future settlement – one whose first condition is unconditional normalization between Saudi Arabia and Israel, which very much depends on the upcoming meeting between Trump and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MbS).
Resistance factions are not only concerned with outright forced displacement but also with “alternative solutions” and pressure tactics being used by the occupation forces, such as suffocating restrictions, prolonged destruction, and delays in reconstruction that could push Palestinians in Gaza into voluntary migration. Internal Hamas estimates, which remain unpublished, suggest that a third of Gaza’s youth are considering leaving at the first opportunity.
Meanwhile, the “alternative solution” being floated is riddled with dangers. Egypt’s reconstruction plan appears to cater more to US and Israeli interests than to Gaza’s social and economic realities. Washington proposed a phased reconstruction plan beginning with clearing Gaza’s rubble – projected to take three to five years – followed by rebuilding efforts that will last for another five to 10 years. Cairo, on the other hand, proposed building quick-fix cities in Gaza’s empty areas before addressing the destruction.
The Egyptian proposal, however, raises concerns: most of these empty lands are in central and southern Gaza (Deir al-Balah, Nuseirat, Bureij, Maghazi, and Khan Yunis), while the northern governorates – where most of the destruction took place – have no open land. This effectively shifts Gaza’s population away from the border with Israel, aligning with Tel Aviv’s longstanding goal of depopulating northern Gaza.
Further mines lurk in the reconstruction details, such as Israeli-imposed urban planning measures that insist on wider spacing between buildings and roads, similar to its post-2002 rebuilding of the Jenin Refugee Camp with UAE funding. Hamas has also detected a calculated delay in rebuilding schools and universities – prioritizing housing instead – to suppress youth activism and resistance.
Hamas’s ‘Day After’ doctrine
In the broader power struggle, linking Gaza’s reconstruction to a US-aligned Arab coalition, which would likely involve the perfidious Palestinian Authority (PA), threatens to stifle the resistance’s influence. Hamas and the PIJ have made it clear: any force attempting to replace Israel in Gaza will be treated as an occupying power and fought accordingly.
Speaking at the Al Jazeera Forum in Doha, Hamas political bureau member Osama Hamdan iterated the movement’s own ‘Day After’ stance: “We will not accept to pay the price of an imagined defeat.” He stressed that Hamas refuses to be sidelined despite being open to discussing power-sharing. Regarding Trump’s threats, Hamdan asserted that shock tactics would not work against the resistance movement.
For Hamas, Gaza is just one part of a larger struggle – the Palestinian cause, which includes the West Bank and Jerusalem, remains a central concern for the resistance. While halting bloodshed remains the immediate priority, Hamas insists that Operation Al-Aqsa Flood must remain the guiding objective. Securing Gaza alone while abandoning the broader battle could risk the end of the entire Palestinian cause.