The (former) Ukrainian president Vladimir Zelinski has failed. During his current travel in the U.S. his ‘victory plan’, a wishlist designed to drag the U.S. and NATO deeper into the war, did not gain support.
Even his most urgent request, to allow Ukraine to use supplied long range missiles for long-range strikes within Russia, has been rejected.
To justify its decision the Biden administration even ‘leaked’ an intelligence assessment which warned of allowing such:
Intelligence agencies concluded that granting Ukraine’s request to use Western missiles against targets deep in Russia could prompt forceful retaliation while not fundamentally changing the course of the war.
A promise of another US$8 billion gift in military supplies was offered as a consolation gift. But the package does not include what the Ukrainian military needs or wants:
In the absence of looser restrictions to let Kyiv use Western missiles, the White House has shipped the Joint Standoff Weapon (Jsow), a precision-guided glide bomb with a range of about 80 miles, for the first time.
A statement by Mr Biden said the F-16-launched weapon would “enhance Ukraine’s long-range strike capabilities”.
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Even if Jsow is allowed to be dropped on Russia — Mr Biden’s statement does not make reference to the possibility — it does not have the range to cause significant harm.Because of the density of Moscow’s air defences near the front line, Ukrainian F-16s would need to drop the bombs from a safe distance, effectively meaning Jsow would be able to hit targets just 25 miles inside Russia.
Aside from a rather small amount for additional ammunition most of the $8 billion will be in payments to U.S. companies for the production of weapons which Ukraine will only receive years from now.
In her meeting with Zelenski Vice-President Kamala Harris urged to continue the war:
Ms. Harris, who has met with Mr. Zelensky a half-dozen times since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, said at the White House on Thursday that she would “ensure Ukraine prevails in this war,” adding that President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia “could end the war tomorrow.”
Ms. Harris said that those who would have Ukraine trade territory for peace were supporting “proposals of surrender” — a dig at former President Donald J. Trump, her Republican opponent, and his skepticism of aid for Kyiv.
She added that the fight in Ukraine “matters to the people of America,” and framed the conflict as one that the American people should recognize as highly consequential.
“The most important moments in our history have come when we stood up to aggressors like Putin,” Ms. Harris said, warning that the Russian leader would not stop with Ukraine, and would possibly even look into encroaching on NATO territory, if he succeeds in his campaign.
The Republicans have shunned Zelenski over his intervention in the upcoming election:
They were angered by Zelensky’s visit to an arms factory in Biden’s hometown of Scranton with top Democrats. Zelensky will meet Trump on Friday despite earlier reports that the meeting had been cancelled.
Zelensky’s visit to the ammunition factory in the key swing state of Pennsylvania was labelled by leading Republicans as a partisan campaign event.
In a public letter, speaker of the US House Mike Johnson said the visit was “designed to help Democrats” and claimed it amounted to “election interference”.
The Republican candidate Donald Trump only agreed to meet Zelenski after the later begged him in a letter (which Trump immediately published). He had previously lambasted Zelenski for his unwillingness to negotiate a settlement with Russia:
Republican rival for the presidency, Donald Trump, mocked Zelensky at a campaign event as the “greatest salesman on Earth” and accused him of refusing to “make a deal” with Moscow.
Earlier this week, Trump also praised Russia’s military capabilities, saying: “They beat Hitler, they beat Napoleon – that’s what they do, they fight.”
They indeed do. The news from the battlefield are not in Ukraine’s favor.
Russian forces have surrounded Ugledar, a mining city that constituted a Ukrainian bulwark in its south eastern defense line. Whatever is left of the 72nd Ukrainian brigade has been trapped in the city after its earlier requests for evacuation had been denied.
The Ukrainian incursion into Russia’s Kursk oblast is also coming to an end. The Ukrainian command had to pull back its largely destroyed 82nd brigade that had led the incursion. It was replaced with a Territorial Defense Brigade which lacks the training and will for a longer fight.
All over the eastern front Ukrainian troops are in retreat. They are in disarray and lack the capacity to hold a line (archived):
Ukraine’s troops and their commanders are growing concerned over manpower problems, particularly the quality of new recruits and the speed at which they are injured or killed in combat.
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Along the front in Donetsk, four commanders, a deputy commander and nearly a dozen soldiers from four Ukrainian brigades told the Financial Times that the new conscripts lack basic combat skills, motivation and often abandon their positions when they come under fire.The commanders estimated that 50 to 70 per cent of new infantry troops were killed or wounded within days of starting their first rotation.
The Ukrainian frontline is literarily running out of capable soldiers:
Seasoned soldiers “are being killed off too quickly”, said another commander on the eastern front, only to be replaced by mostly older men without experience and in worse physical shape.
Age is a key concern — the average person in Ukraine’s military is 45. Of about 30 infantry troops in a unit, said the deputy commander of the 72nd brigade, on average half were in their mid-40s, only five were under 30 and the rest were 50 or older.
“As infantry, you need to run, you need to be strong, you need to carry heavy equipment,” he added. “It’s hard to do that if you aren’t young.”
There is no way for Ukraine to sustain the war for much longer. It will have to negotiate with Russia even while it is retreating everywhere.
The Biden administration will want to prevent a grueling defeat in Ukraine before the November election. But it has given Ukraine nothing to sustain for much longer than a few months from there.
Zelenski can see the writing on the wall. To end the war he will have to agree to give up on a large part of former Ukrainian proper. But the fascists who indirectly rule in Ukraine do not condone that and will give him little room to move forward.
What is Zelenksi going to do now when it is obvious that there is not other way out?