Serbia is Betting on a Ridiculous Hedging Strategy in Foreign Policy

Sergey Adamov, Pravda, No. 26 (31663) March 11-12, 2025  (Machine Translation) —

If this is not a “color revolution”, then at least its harbinger. This is how many experts call what is happening in Serbia. For three months now, the country has been shaken by protests, which are heating up an already difficult situation, which arose, among other things, as a result of the servile and unclear position of the authorities.

  There are currently three sources of political instability in Serbia. The pro-Western opposition, supported by the Dutch-based media magnate Dragan Solak. Then there are the students, who are largely intertwined with the opposition. And there are the patriots, dissatisfied with the “creeping” recognition of Kosovo, the authorities’ overtures to the West, and the loss of ties with fraternal Russia.

The reason for large-scale protests was the collapse of the railway station in Novi Sad on November 1, 2024. Then 15 people died. At the same time, the station had only recently been reopened after reconstruction.

The students were the driving force behind the protests, egged on by the liberal opposition, which had previously held regular demonstrations, but without much fire. The students demanded that documents on the reconstruction of the station be published and that those responsible for the tragedy be punished.

Important highways were blocked, riots broke out, and as a result, criminal cases were opened against 13 students and teachers. The authorities decided to make peace and pardoned them all, and also brought to justice those guilty of the collapse of the station, but the students put forward new demands, this time social ones.

The Serbian parliament eventually changed the law on education, which will increase state funding for universities and teachers’ salaries and compensate up to 50% of the cost of education for students. But this did not help. On March 7, students once again went out to protest in the capital and major cities. New actions have been announced.

The culmination of pre-Maidan passions was unrest right in the Serbian parliament. The opposition disrupted the session, its deputies waved flares, threw smoke bombs and firecrackers. Three women were injured.

The reason was formal to the extreme – an opposition MP tried to speak out of turn, but was not allowed. At the same time, the pyrotechnics and banners were prepared in advance by opponents of the government. The Serbian Internet jokes that the next reason for the opposition’s discontent will be the parliamentary toilet occupied by someone.

Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic once again cheerfully assured the people that the “color revolution” will fail, although the protest will become increasingly radical and the Western customers will not calm down.

Serbian Deputy Prime Minister Aleksandar Vulin directly accused the collective West of trying to drive a wedge between Belgrade and Moscow with the help of students and the opposition. “These protests have no social background, the organizers’ goal is to overthrow the government and impose sanctions against Russia,” he said.

The question then arises as to why the government regularly gives in and makes concessions to students and the opposition, since after one demand is met, another appears, and the demonstrations themselves do not subside?

Moreover, the Progressive Party of Serbia, the leader of the parliamentary coalition, until recently headed by the same Vucic, refused to accept the draft law on foreign agents proposed by the Movement of Socialists party, a coalition partner.

The climax of Serbian turmoil was the recent UN vote for a pro-Ukrainian resolution condemning Russia. Allegedly, this was done by mistake. Aleksandar Vucic recorded a televised address apologizing to his people, who were outraged by such a blunder.

Former Serbian President Boris Tadić claims that on the sidelines of the Munich Conference, the Serbian delegation led by Foreign Minister Marko Djurić assured Western partners of the “Russian origin” of the mass protests. If this is indeed the case, then we are no longer dealing with a non-Aligned balancing policy, but with schizophrenia.

One can recall the constant assurances of the same Vucic that joining the European Union is a priority for Serbia. Also, patriotic Serbs cannot forgive Vucic for signing an economic agreement in Washington in 2020 to normalize the economic situation in Serbia and Kosovo.

The document effectively paved the way for the recognition of Kosovo. Donald Trump insisted on signing it, even then wanting to appear as a peacemaker. And now, after Zelensky’s humiliation in the White House, Aleksandar Vucic has declared the need for a new broad discussion in Serbian society on foreign policy preferences.

“The Europeans, without thinking, have set themselves and Ukraine against the United States. This is too hasty. It is time for Serbia to reconsider its place in a completely new reality,” he said. It looks as if geopolitical balancing is not a way for Serbia, but a meaning.

However, in Serbia and Russia there is an opinion that Vucic and his supporters should be “understood and forgiven.” Serbia is surrounded by the states of the North Atlantic Alliance and has no access to the sea. It will not be possible to act willfully, as in Hungary or Slovakia – they have long been in the EU and NATO, they do not have their own Kosovo and other unhealed wounds from the collapse of Yugoslavia.

As for the future of the possible Serbian “color revolution”, the change of administration in Washington and the confusion of European liberals play into the hands of the current government. If Vucic and his associates withstand the pressure of the opposition and do not play along with the anti-Russian forces in Europe, this will increase their chances of protecting Serbia and the entire Balkan region from upheaval.