Bagram Airbase and Beyond: Why Pakistan Must Avoid Strategic Entanglements
Abbas Hashemite, New Eastern Outlook, September 27, 2025 —
Escalating tensions between the interim Afghan government and US President Donald Trump put Pakistan in a complex geostrategic position, raising concerns over its sovereignty and non-alignment doctrine.
Bagram Airbase: A Flashpoint of Global Power Politics
During his visit to the UK, while talking about the Bagram airbase, President Trump stated, “We’re trying to get it back, by the way; that could be a little breaking news. We’re trying to get it back because they need things from us.” However, the interim Taliban government’s refusal to hand over the Bagram airbase to the United States instigated tensions between the two sides. President Trump threatened the Afghan leadership by stating, “If Afghanistan doesn’t give Bagram Airbase back to those that built it, the United States of America, BAD THINGS ARE GOING TO HAPPEN!!!” However, the Afghan Taliban urged the US government to hold to the prior agreements about non-intervention in Afghanistan. They also stated, “It is once again underscored that, rather than repeating past failed approaches, a policy of realism and rationality should be adopted.”
The Strategic Cost of Cooperation
These rising tensions between the US and Afghanistan have significant implications for Pakistan. President Trump’s push for regaining Bagram airbase dragged both Afghanistan and Pakistan into a new loop of coercive signaling. However, this time the pitch is directly about geostrategic and geopolitical manipulation against Russia and China. This re-evaluation of the United States will exert significant pressure on Pakistan even if the Taliban government did not meet Trump’s demands. The US will exert pressure on Pakistan for providing airspace and intelligence sharing, which could drag the country back to the post-9/11 situation. Any US attempt to seize Bagram would amount to a re-invasion of Afghanistan, requiring significant Pakistani assistance in multiple aspects.
Pakistan has long been vying for cordial relations with all regional and global players. The country has recently shifted its foreign policy from bloc politics to a policy of non-alignment. Islamabad’s ties with Moscow are strengthening rapidly. Pakistan is also a key regional ally of China. It hosts the BRI’s flagship project, CPEC, further cementing bilateral ties between the two sides. The Trump administration also re-evaluated its South Asia policy, shifting its tilt from India to Pakistan. International analysts were already suspicious about President Trump’s tilt towards Pakistan. Washington’s recent demand to regain access to Bagram airbase has revealed its real intention behind its realignment with Islamabad.
Pakistan will face solemn implications for providing any assistance to the United States to coerce the Afghan government. In the strategic realm, provision of airspace or any other type of facilitation to the US will directly involve Pakistan in a US-Taliban and US-China conflict, instigating retaliation from the regional countries against Islamabad. Pakistan is already facing cross-border terrorism by the terrorist elements hiding in Afghanistan. Any sort of anti-Taliban cooperation with the US could lead to a new wave of terrorism in Pakistan. Moreover, Beijing will also perceive Pakistan’s airspace decisions as its alignment strategy, leading to significant economic, political, and strategic implications. In addition, it will also lead to deterioration of Pakistan’s relations with Iran, shrinking the country’s diplomatic clout in the region and beyond. Pakistan’s cooperation with the United States, in this regard, will also impede Islamabad’s efforts to enhance ties with Moscow.
The American footprint in Afghanistan will also provide Israel with strategic leverage in the region. Israel holds strong military ties with the United States, providing it a solid platform for operations beyond the Middle Eastern region. The US presence in Afghanistan will also lead to the presence of a strong Israeli intelligence network in the region. Israel has already initiated its Balochistan Study Program (BSP) under the Middle East Media Research Institute (MEMRI), a step to threaten Pakistan’s domestic security. Pakistan also shares a historic rivalry with India, and the latter shares deep security ties with Israel. Any future US presence in Afghanistan will further increase India-Israel cooperation, posing serious threats to Pakistan’s infrastructure, economy, CPEC, and nuclear assets.
Strategic Autonomy through Parliamentary Oversight
Therefore, Pakistan must deny the provision of bases and strategic facilitation to the United States. In the past, Islamabad denied demands multiple times, including the blockage of NATO Supply Routes in 2011 and rolling back the country’s nuclear program in the 1990s. Pakistan must opt for parliamentary oversight for all sorts of strategic arrangements, including airspace, intelligence, and logistic support. Any sort of cooperation with the United States in the re-invasion of Afghanistan or the temporary deployment of US intelligence and security personnel in Pakistan will only increase geostrategic complexities for Islamabad.