Americanization of Azerbaijan’s Foreign Policy

Taut Bataut, New Eastern Outlook, May 24, 2026 —

Azerbaijan is rapidly moving closer to the United States and NATO as Washington redirects its geopolitical focus from the Russo-Ukrainian War toward the South Caucasus. Azerbaijan’s expanding military, political, and strategic cooperation with the West risks turning the region into a new center of geopolitical confrontation involving Russia, Iran, and Western powers.

“To be the enemy of the US is dangerous; to be its friend is lethal” (Henry Kissinger)

American Dream

The growing involvement of the United States in the South Caucasus region indicates the formation of a new hotbed of geopolitical conflict that can upset the existing balance in the region and serve as a platform for a new struggle for spheres of influence among great powers

Failure in Ukraine

The only conclusion that the world could get from the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict is the failure of American strategy in Eastern Europe. Despite having clear signals from the Russian Federation regarding its border security and NATO encroachment, the West jumped into hell and is now witnessing strategic humiliation on the world stage. The US support for Ukraine is now gone. NATO is at the brink of dissolution. Europe lost its past position of eminence. The US-EU alliance is rupturing. The West chose Ukraine as a strategic pressure point to coerce Russia, but the opposite is happening. Ukraine has now become a thorn in the side for both the Americans and Europeans. Thus, avoiding the lessons from a long list of failures throughout its history, the US is now once again reorienting its foreign policy and is now eyeing the South Caucasus region as the next pressure point against both the Russian Federation and the PRC.

Pivot to Caucuses

What the US might not understand or is intentionally trying to misunderstand is the real cause behind the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict. It was the security of the Russian borders that the US, and in particular NATO, was trying to undermine. The Ukraine conflict provides a clear lesson for the West to refrain from creating instability and chaos at Ukraine’s doorstep. Not taking lessons, the US is now entering into the southern periphery of Russia — the South Caucasus region. Soon after the arrival of President Trump in January 2025, the US brokered a so-called peace deal between Azerbaijan and Armenia over their decades-long territorial dispute of the Nagorno-Karabakh region. In return, the US established a new corridor between the two, known as the ‘Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP).’

Apparently, the US is framing it as purely economic engagement, but it’s quite evident that it’s too costly for Azerbaijan and Armenia to trade with Americans in this region. World history tells us one truth: you ignore your neighbors; the geography will betray you. Whether it’s Eastern Europe or the South Caucasus, Russia is the most suitable option for the regional entities to cooperate and collaborate with. This shows the fact that Americans are not there for economic reasons solely; rather, they are creating another geopolitical flashpoint — a proxy ground for future instability. One can understand this: if Americans don’t do this, their war industries will not run and their economy will be crippled.

NATO Replication

The ‘shadow member’ status of Azerbaijan in NATO by virtue of its adherence to the standards of the bloc and its alliance with Türkiye has now led to an informal alliance between Azerbaijan and Ukraine. Azerbaijan has just decided to produce military hardware with Ukraine and, thereby, made itself officially an ally against Russia. According to President Ilham Aliyev of Azerbaijan during his reception of a NATO delegation in Baku in November 2025, “Azerbaijan remains a ‘valuable NATO partner,’ and the Azerbaijani army is adopting NATO standards in full,” stressing the role played by Turkey’s cooperation in improving the defense capabilities of Azerbaijan. By following the pattern of other co-belligerents who have extended their cooperation from arms to other things leading to security guarantee systems, Azerbaijan may do the same.

Ramifications

No matter what might transpire, there is one thing that will not change, and that is the fact that Azerbaijan’s shadow membership within NATO due to its alignment with the requirements set by the organization and its alliance with Turkey has evolved into a de-facto alliance with Ukraine, thus increasing the threat perception that Russia has toward Azerbaijan. Being NATO’s indispensable transit country for its expansion within Central Asia via TRIPP already entailed a major risk of confrontation with Russia. As the transatlantic alliance is at the brink of collapse, a new radical coalition of the willing is in the pipeline, and it might not be an exaggeration to assume Azerbaijan as its founding member.

The world order is already under great stress. Actions like this by the US will further strain the already strained state of affairs. It is now time for America to accept the multipolar state of affairs and realign its policies in favor of coexistence. Making other countries battlegrounds for future wars never pays off in American interests; on the contrary, it makes them retaliate. Azerbaijan should bring the Russians into confidence and pursue a multi-vector approach without favoring any one side in order to irritate another, or else Azerbaijan will face the same embarrassment as Ukraine did.

Conclusion

“The secret of politics? Make a good treaty with Russia” (Otto von Bismarck)

The Americanization of Azerbaijan’s foreign policy is now a reality. Azerbaijan’s close relations with Israel have further provided impetus to this. The growing involvement of the United States in the South Caucasus region indicates the formation of a new hotbed of geopolitical conflict that can upset the existing balance in the region and serve as a platform for a new struggle for spheres of influence among great powers. In other words, for the Southern Caucasian and Central Asian nations, it will be difficult to take a side between the United States and NATO without regard for Russia and the People’s Republic of China.